TEHRAN- The recent political and military discourse surrounding the Bagram Air Base in northern Afghanistan underscores the renewed strategic tug-of-war playing out in Central and South Asia. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has made the reclamation of Bagram a focal point of his political agenda, demanding the Taliban return control of what was once America's primary military hub in Afghanistan. His statements, notably his warning that “bad things will happen” if the base is not handed back, signal a potential shift towards more aggressive U.S. postures amid a complex global environment. 

Historical background of Bagram air base

The Bagram Air Base was originally built in the 1950s with Soviet assistance, initially serving as the Afghan Air Force’s main airfield.

During the Soviet invasion from 1979 to 1989, Bagram became a hub for thousands of combat missions against the Mujahideen (the guerrilla forces). Its strategic location roughly 40 miles north of Kabul allowed effective deployment of Soviet air power, making it a target for frequent attacks by rebel forces. Following the Soviet withdrawal and subsequent civil wars, control of Bagram changed hands multiple times among various factions, reflecting the instability engulfing Afghanistan during the 1990s. 

With the U.S.-led invasion after 9/11, Bagram was revitalized into the largest American military base outside the United States. The base expanded into a sprawling complex equipped for sustained air and ground operations, with two runways over three kilometers long capable of hosting fighter jets, bombers, transport aircraft, and drones.

It housed tens of thousands of troops, contractors, and support personnel. Facilities included hospitals, housing, recreational centers, and extensive logistics networks. For two decades, Bagram functioned as the epicenter of U.S. military operations, enabling airstrikes, reconnaissance, intelligence collection, and rapid troop deployment across Afghanistan. 

The Biden administration’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal forced the handover of Bagram to the Afghan National Security Forces, who shortly afterward lost control to the Taliban’s rapid advance. The loss of Bagram closed a chapter on America’s long-standing military presence in Afghanistan but left a vacuum with substantial regional security consequences.

Trump’s political use and U.S. domestic context

Bagram's loss has been aggressively politicized domestically by Trump, who has framed it as a sign of weakened American resolve under President Biden. Trump indicates a return to a hawkish posture intended to mobilize his core supporters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections by calling for the return of the base and threatening "bad things" would occur if the Taliban refused.

This strategy draws on a larger narrative that contrasts his "strong leadership" with what he calls Biden's "disastrous" troop withdrawal. Trump's stance on Afghanistan continues to be a powerful wedge in American electoral politics, as evidenced by the viral reactions on social media, particularly X. Regaining Bagram, which is highly far-fetched, would represent not only tactical military might but also a demonstration of American dominance and deterrence to audiences at home and abroad. 

Iran and geostrategic position of Bagram air base 

For Iran, a possible return of U.S. control over Bagram would naturally constitute a threat. Situated in northern Afghanistan close to the Iranian border, the base would allow surveillance and possible military operations to target Iran’s eastern provinces. The base’s proximity to Afghanistan’s shared borders with Iran, China’s Xinjiang region, and Central Asia would enhance its strategic value as a platform for U.S. regional military and intelligence operations.

Bagram would enable U.S. forces to conduct drone reconnaissance, electronic surveillance, rapid deployment of special operations forces, and missile or air strikes at Iranian interests. 

Tehran views Bagram through the lens of the U.S.–Iran geopolitical rivalry, interpreting America’s likely return as part of a larger strategy to encircle the Islamic Republic and curb its growing influence in the region. Iran’s strategic partnership with China, including a 25-year cooperation agreement spanning economic, military, and technological sectors, is also entwined in this regional contest.

From Tehran’s perspective, the U.S.'s possible presence in Bagram acts as a check against Sino-Iranian expansion in Central and South Asia, complicating Tehran’s efforts to deepen ties and increase regional influence. 

Broader regional and global context

The struggle over Bagram is embedded within a broader triangular contest involving the United States, China, and Russia, all competing for influence in Afghanistan and the Central Asian corridor. For Washington, Bagram symbolizes a foothold from which to project power, counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and monitor regional security threats.

China regards Bagram with concern, as it would U.S. surveillance near Xinjiang province — an area where Beijing faces ethnic unrest and terrorism risks allegedly supported by militants in Afghanistan. Beijing’s deepening engagement with Afghanistan and Pakistan serves to counteract U.S. influence, with China’s support for the Taliban government offering a strategic hedge against America’s military footprint in Bagram.

Given its historical stakes and security concerns in Central Asia, Russia also keeps a close eye on the situation. A reassertion of U.S. military power through Bagram, which is a just a dream, would complicate Moscow's regional goals, despite the fact that Russia follows a different approach that emphasizes diplomatic engagement and security partnerships.

The Taliban have become a crucial geopolitical actor juggling ties with China, Russia, the United States, and regional powers like Iran and Pakistan. This is demonstrated by their refusal to give up control of Bagram in the face of American pressure. In a delicate and intricate regional system, control of Bagram continues to be crucial and symbolic, impacting diplomatic dynamics and power dynamics. 

Security and military operational capabilities

The Bagram Air Base’s infrastructure supports a wide array of military assets: fighter jets such as F-16s, helicopters including UH-60 Black Hawks and CH-47 Chinooks, transport planes like the C-130 Hercules and C-17 Globemaster III, and extensive drone capabilities. Its multi-layered security includes perimeter fencing, watchtowers, and patrol units, which safeguard this critical site.

As a logistical hub, Bagram manages the flow of troops, weapons, food, medical supplies, and humanitarian aid throughout Afghanistan’s challenging terrain. The capacity to launch rapid air and drone strikes from Bagram enables U.S. forces to conduct surgical operations deep inside hostile territory, crucial for counterterrorism campaigns and special operations.

Reactivating Bagram would restore rapid deployment capabilities in Afghanistan’s northern and central provinces, potentially enhancing pressure not only on militants but also on perceived state adversaries. This operational flexibility heightens the stakes for regional security calculations. 

The Air Base stands as a geographic and symbolic keystone of U.S. strategic ambitions in Central and South Asia. Its historical legacy, from the Soviet era through two decades of U.S. presence, underscores its critical role in military operations, intelligence, and regional influence.

Trump’s dreams for return reflect a domestic political strategy intertwined with broader geopolitical contests involving Iran, China, Russia, and the Taliban-run Afghanistan. 

The complex interplay of U.S. military ambitions, Taliban sovereignty assertions, and regional power rivalries means that the status of Bagram will continue to influence the balance of power. The base’s future remains uncertain but pivotal to understanding the evolving dynamics of conflict, diplomacy, and power in Afghanistan and beyond.

However, summarily speaking, Trump’s access to the Bagram air base is like a dream.