LONDON – The U.S. and the Israeli occupation entity have become entangled in a quagmire. The decision for war with Iran is based on miscalculation. Attacking Iran and escalating matters to the level of war, to the point of no return, could lead to enormous consequences for the new global order that Trump seeks to establish.

The Iranian government is not easy to overthrow. It has gone through far greater trials than this. It was while the country was not so strong. Yet the government was not brought down. This happened at the beginning of the revolution and during the Iran–Iraq War: movements by the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (also called MKO), separatist Kurds, the killing of leaders of the Islamic Republican Party, treasonous president Bani Sadr, the killing of President Rajai and Prime Minister Bahonar, and a series of assassinations and unrest. However, they were unable to topple the government.

Today, the government is much stronger, and the internal opposition is much weaker. Airstrikes alone cannot bring down a government determined to resist.
America and the Israeli occupation entity are betting on internal change. They are betting on ethnic and racial diversity. They are betting on the results of prolonged sanctions and the impoverishment of the Iranian people, to create rebellion, protests, and perhaps even the fragmentation of Iran. 

However, the 12-day war (in June 2025) and the recent protests have shown that the people rally around the leadership in times of danger. The people understand that the crises they are experiencing are due to sanctions, and not mismanagement. 

The proposed scenarios are as follows: they will not be able to topple the government. The government represents the main obstacle to the new global order that Trump seeks in the region and the larger world, an order in which the Israeli occupation entity would be entrusted with managing the region entirely. This would be achieved by strengthening the Israeli occupation entity until it ultimately becomes a state “from the Euphrates to the Nile.”

The post–World War II global order, which led to the formation of the Israeli occupation entity in historic Palestine, no longer meets Trump’s new requirements of dividing the world into regions and assigning influential, dynamic, technologically advanced, and administratively capable actors, like Israel, to manage entire regions in service of American interests and investments. 

All of Europe would serve American interests through self-financed administrations that support themselves and do not drain the U.S. treasury. This would allow the U.S. to focus on major confrontations with China, after achieving full control over the Western Hemisphere, in order to solidify the dominance of the dollar and the global monetary system in confrontation with China.

If the joint U.S.-Israeli war fails to topple the Islamic Republic, it will lead to increased Iranian influence in the region and a strengthening of its allies. Then Iran would prove itself as a power that cannot be ignored. The battle is not a nuclear battle, nor a battle over long-range missiles or Iranian defensive capabilities. The goal is government change. 

If the Iranian government is not overthrown, then the operation has failed. They do not speak clearly about this matter. Sometimes they speak of overthrowing the government; other times they speak of limited strikes. 

If Iran emerges from this war that would mean that the Israel occupation regime, within its current borders, will not be able to meet the American requirements. This would lead to the decline of the Israeli entity.

The war would be gradual and escalating, and Iran would lead the confrontation with a cool head. In later stages, additional elements may be introduced, such as stirring up unrest inside Iran or cross-border infiltration. Iran has border regions with minorities, and Israel believes it can penetrate these areas in a way that could separate some Iranian border provinces and ultimately topple the government.

This is the general perception, and it will fail. Iran will emerge from this war undefeated, and that in itself would be a victory and consolidation. That would lead to the decline of the Israeli occupation entity and its inability to impose the agenda that it seeks to enforce.