TEHRAN- The ongoing US-Israeli military conflict with Iran has evolved from a geopolitical flashpoint into a systemic shock that is fundamentally altering the global economic landscape.

Five weeks into the crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, the world is facing a supply shock reminiscent of the 1970s but with potentially more complex consequences.

The most immediate impact has been the decimation of global energy supplies. With approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil passing through the Strait, its closure has sent prices soaring.

Brent crude recently settled at $112.78 a barrel, with analysts at JP Morgan warning that a prolonged closure could drive prices toward $150.

The International Energy Agency has admitted that even large-scale stockpile releases are merely a "painkiller," not a cure for the loss of 15-20 million barrels per day from the market.

However, the long-term threat extends beyond expensive petrol. The World Bank, IMF, and IEA issued a rare joint statement this week warning that the crisis is triggering one of the largest supply shortages in history. The "ripple effects" are disrupting industrial supply chains globally.

Persian Gulf-region exports of critical materials—such as helium for MRIs and semiconductors, aluminum for construction, and phosphate for fertilizers—have been severely constrained.

Why are developed economies, particularly in Europe, growing increasingly anxious? 

The answer lies in their post-industrial dependency on affordable energy. Over recent decades, Western industrial growth has been built upon cheap and predictable fossil fuels. 

Factory production, maritime and air freight networks, automotive manufacturing, petrochemicals, and even mechanized agriculture all require stable energy inputs. 

When energy prices rise, three simultaneous consequences follow: production costs escalate, consumer inflation accelerates, and GDP growth slows. 

Economists fear a return to "stagflation." The OECD has already slashed the Eurozone growth forecast to 0.8 percent while raising inflation projections.

For developing nations, the crisis poses an existential threat. Higher fertilizer costs are translating into food insecurity, while tighter financial conditions risk a debt crisis across the Global South. As Dr. Sultan Al Jaber noted, "When Hormuz flows, economies grow. When it is disrupted, everyone pays". The world is now counting that bill.