TEHRAN - Tehran and Washington appear to be preparing to finalize a memorandum of understanding aimed at permanently ending the joint US-Israeli aggression, but America's history of bad faith and failure to uphold its commitments remains a major obstacle to lasting peace.

On Thursday, Trump claimed he had called off scheduled strikes on Iran after progress on a potential peace deal. He said an agreement to end hostilities would be signed “maybe this weekend.” 

Earlier that day, the US president had said on Truth Social that American forces would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT.” Trump also said the US would seek to control Iran’s oil and gas facilities, including Kharg Island.

According to a CNN tally, Trump’s latest reversal—oscillating between threats of strikes and walk-backs—brings to 39 the number of times since late March that he has said a deal with Iran is close, imminent, or nearly complete.

Prior to the April 8 ceasefire that paused the US-Israel war that began on February 28, Trump had warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Later, he threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age.”

Some reports suggest that the MoU between the United States and Iran could be signed in Geneva on Sunday. Iran has not confirmed such reports. 

Iran’s position

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Thursday that major sections of a potential MoU are close to completion but referred to Washington’s contradictions as the main obstacle.

"Textually, the text has almost been finalized in its major parts. The problem is that the contradictory positions of the United States have always caused turbulence and disruption in this process," Esmaeil Baghaei said.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said in a post on X on Friday that the media should refrain from speculation.

“The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content. In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course,” he said.

Reported details of potential MoU

Iran’s Mehr News Agency has published details of the potential 14-point MoU, under which discussions on Iran’s missile program and its support for regional resistance groups have been definitively taken off the agenda. It is expected to pave the way for talks on a deal to bring a permanent end to the US-Israeli war.

The 14-point document stipulates that final talks will not begin until the release of half of Iran’s frozen funds, the suspension of Iran’s oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade that the US imposed on Iran days after the April 8 ceasefire took effect.

First, the plan calls for an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Second, it stipulates a US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the country’s sovereignty. Third, it emphasizes the full lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days. Fourth, it requires the United States to withdraw its forces from the vicinity of Iran. Fifth, it calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Sixth, it envisages the suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives, along with full access to Iran’s financial resources. Seventh, it requires the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. Eighth, it sets out 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the comprehensive lifting of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as relevant UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions. Ninth, it reaffirms Iran’s commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons. Tenth, during the negotiation period, the United States commits not to deploy additional forces in the region or impose new sanctions. Eleventh, it provides for the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiations, with half made available before talks begin. Twelfth, it calls for the establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. Thirteenth, the final agreement would be endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution. Fourteenth, it stipulates that final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of the frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade, and that the final deal would focus solely on nuclear-related issues, sanctions relief, and Iran’s economic reconstruction, while discussions on Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups would be explicitly excluded from the agenda.

US bad faith

Prior to Trump’s announcement about the MoU, Iran and the US saw their worst escalation since the April 8 ceasefire. Earlier this month, Iran and Israel also traded fire over Israel’s strikes against southern Lebanon. Before that truce deal takes effect, the US had accepted that Lebanon was part of the agreement and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, whose country has emerged as the main mediator, confirmed it. But both Tel Aviv and Washington reneged on the promise.

The US has a long history of bad faith. When the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, Tehran and Washington were engaged in talks. A similar scenario was repeated in June last year, when Iran and the US were engaged in negotiations.

For now, it seems the MoU could be signed soon. But that does not mean that reaching a final deal will be easy, mainly due to Washington’s contradictory statements and excessive demands.

Trump accepted a ceasefire with Iran on April 8 after the US and Israel failed to achieve their goals, which mainly included destroying Iran’s military capabilities and pushing the country to surrender. This was in addition to Iran’s strong military response to the aggression. Iranian armed forces hit Israel and American bases in the region during the 39 days of war, dealing severe blows.

In addition, Iran’s full control over the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war has sent shockwaves across the world, including the US. The war on Iran has increased fuel prices in the US and exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis. US prices in May rose at their fastest rate in three years, with inflation climbing to 4.2%. A recent Moody’s Analytics study estimated that the war on Iran has cost US households around $750 each, or approximately $100 billion in total.

Amid Trump’s near-record-low popularity and growing anger over the war on Iran inside the US, Trump should decide whether he wants a deal in practice or merely on paper.