OPEC not expected to up supplies

September 11, 2007 - 0:0

The 145th Ordinary Meeting of the OPEC Conference will be held at OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria, today.

OPEC oil ministers arrived in Vienna on Monday under pressure of consumer countries that say the oil price is now very high and is a new risk for the global economy.
However, most OPEC oil ministers, upon their arrival in Vienna, argued that current output is sufficient, but the world's biggest exporter Saudi Arabia was silent ahead of today’s meeting to chart production policy, Reuters reported.
The outcome of the formal meeting is uncertain – a meeting in which the group will decide whether to raise output amid speculation that Saudi Arabia is preparing to persuade its reluctant partners of the need for an increase.
OPEC producers find themselves under pressure from consumer countries to bring down prices, but they are aware that the outlook for oil demand is clouded given the question marks over global economic growth, AFP reported.
Six of OPEC's 12 member states have said OPEC should not alter its quotas this week.
They include Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Venezuela, Algeria, and Qatar. But kingpin Saudi Arabia has been silent but some sources said the OPEC No. 1 producer is in favor of a 500,000 one million bpd increase.
Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah summed up the dilemma for the 12-member group as he arrived on Sunday, saying that an increase in supply risked coinciding with a fall in demand because of weakness in the United States.
""What if I increase oil (production), and nobody will buy it?"" said al-Attiyah, who is in favor of keeping output unchanged.
So, Iran's Acting Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari who arrived Monday in Vienna, reiterated his view that ""there is no shortage of crude on the market”, AFP reported.
Some analysts believe the lobby will be influential on OPEC final decision and Saudi Arabia will use its influence on Arab members to persuade them to increase output.
Nevertheless, stances of members such as Iran and Kuwait show any attempt by Saudi Arabia to increase the output is likely to face opposition, with many members insisting the market is adequately supplied with crude and that recent price gains are beyond OPEC's control.
""I don't think there should be an output increase. I don't think the market needs that for the time being,"" Shukri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Company, told reporters as he arrived in the Austrian capital.
Before every OPEC meet, Western experts and think tanks opine that the world market needs more oil. So, it’s not unexpected that this time … those experts and organizations publish reports and warn that OPEC inaction means new all-time highs and blow to world economy.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which expanded to 12 countries in January when African producer Angola joined, produces about 30.5 million barrels per day.
--------------------- Oil price
Oil prices eased slightly in early Monday trading, despite a widespread belief that OPEC will not raise its supplies. As the 12-nation group prepared to meet, U.S. light crude was down 25 cents to $76.45 a barrel, while Brent had lost 28 cents to $74.79, Reuters reported.
------------------- Sore experience
OPEC members have not forgotten the sore experience of 1997 and they guard against consumer countries for increasing output.
In 1997, OPEC increased output as the Asian financial crisis was developing and crude prices crashed to 10 dollars in 1999 because of falling demand and fears of a global recession.
Over the last year, OPEC against consumer countries’ desire, cut deliveries by about 6% and should wait until today for new OPEC practice