TEHRAN- A recent Reuters survey has revealed that OPEC's crude oil production in March 2026 fell by more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to February, marking the lowest output level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020.

The dramatic decline is attributed to the ongoing war between the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran, which has severely disrupted maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, key West Asian producers have faced a sharp reduction in oil exports, leading to unprecedented supply shortages across the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide waterway between Oman and Iran, is the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Nearly 20% of global petroleum passes through it daily—about 17 million barrels. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the strait in response to military strikes. A closure would trap most Persian Gulf oil exports, sending prices beyond $200 per barrel.

The Reuters survey results indicate that OPEC's total production dropped by 7.3 million bpd, settling at 21.57 million bpd. 

This decline far exceeds previous market expectations. 

Analysts at Energy Aspects had predicted in a March 16 report that output would fall by 7 million bpd to 22.2 million bpd. 

The actual figures confirm a more severe supply shock, primarily driven by production cuts in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Iraq hit hardest; Saudi Arabia and UAE partially spared

Among all OPEC members, Iraq experienced the most significant production loss. 

After recording 4.15 million bpd in February, Iraq's oil output collapsed to an average of just 1.4 million bpd in March, representing a drop of nearly two-thirds. 

This catastrophic decline is largely due to Iraq's heavy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for its crude exports.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE saw comparatively smaller decreases, as both nations possess alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. These include overland pipelines and alternate shipping lanes, which allowed them to maintain some export capacity despite the ongoing conflict. 

Meanwhile, Venezuela and Nigeria were the only OPEC members that managed to increase their production during the month, according to the survey.

The Reuters survey also noted that March production figures for several affected countries could still be revised downward, as ongoing shipping disruptions continue to hamper data collection. 

Two sources involved in the survey stated that the actual output might prove even lower than current estimates.

Notably, this month's production level is the lowest since June 2020, when OPEC's 12 members produced 21.38 million bpd following the historic 9.7 million bpd collective cut in response to the COVID-19 demand collapse. 

The current crisis echoes that period in terms of supply shock magnitude, though the root causes are geopolitical rather than pandemic-related.

Eight OPEC+ members had agreed at their March 1 meeting to gradually unwind voluntary supply cuts of 1.65 million bpd starting in April 2026, with an initial increase of 206,000 bpd. 

Their next meeting is scheduled for April 5. However, given the ongoing disruptions, market analysts doubt whether such increases can materialize. 

The Reuters survey is based on ship-tracking data from LSEG, Petrologistics, Kpler, and information from oil companies, OPEC officials, and consultants.