TEHRAN- The world is facing an "energy countdown" as global oil reserves decline at an unprecedented pace, driven by IEA warnings and the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cautioned that commercial oil inventories may only last a few weeks, urging markets to recognize the severity of the situation.

According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, strategic reserves—though recently tapped to add 2.5 million barrels per day—are not endless. These reserves are being drained faster than expected, especially as spring planting and summer travel in the northern hemisphere boost demand for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

The crisis follows the US-Israeli aggression against Iran, which began on February 28. Iran has since closed the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies—to its enemies and allies, vowing not to reopen it unless the illegal blockade is lifted and the war ends permanently.

Economic consequences are severe. J.P. Morgan estimates that every $10 rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.35% and reduce GDP growth by 0.2%. A stronger US dollar is also hurting emerging economies by raising their dollar-denominated debt. Global oil demand is now forecast to fall by 2.4 million barrels per day, while supply is projected to drop by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026.

The IEA confirmed that global observed oil inventories fell by a record 246 million barrels in March and April. A coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves has provided temporary relief, but analysts warn that without a diplomatic resolution, energy security and global economic stability remain under serious threat.