By Saeed Sobhani

The official start of the U.S. presidential race in the year 2020

June 30, 2019

The 2020 presidential elections in the United States have actually started! Democratic candidates' debates have shown that the competition is very tight. However, Donald Trump's foreign policy was one of the main issues that was considered in the Democrats debate. All Democrats declared their opposition to US President-in-Office foreign policy.

It seems that in the presidential elections of 2020, foreign policy will be one of the main issues. Here's a brief overview of some of the news and analysis on the US presidential election:

The case for a woman running against Trump

As The Vox reported, A lot of Democrats are worried that a woman can’t beat President Trump. In a recent poll, just 33 percent of voters thought their neighbors would be comfortable with a female president. And as Vox’s Li Zhou has written, “electability” for a lot of Americans seems to mean being white and male. So for some people, this week’s first Democratic presidential debates, with multiple women onstage for the first time ever, became a referendum on whether a woman would have what it takes to debate Trump.

Washington Post political correspondent Dave Weigel summed up the attitude, arguing that Sen. Kamala Harris’s performance would show voters a woman could really win:

One reason that Kamala exchange with Biden matters: Dem voters need to be convinced that a woman can face Trump onstage and take him apart. That moment got her a long way.

Harris’s exchange with Biden on his history with busing — “Do you agree today that you were wrong to oppose busing in America then?” she pressed Biden, putting him on defense — was one of many strong moments for her in the debate, and suggested she could handle Trump ably. But when it comes to debating our current president, her gender isn’t an obstacle she’d need to overcome. It’s an advantage. Trump has spent his life trying to be the alpha male, perhaps stretching all the way back to his time in military school. His tactics are often based on challenging his opponents’ masculinity. Think of the 2016 Republican primary debates, when he called Marco Rubio “Little Marco” and boasted about the size of his penis. That tactic simply doesn’t work on women. His approach with Hillary Clinton and other female opponents and critics has generally been to belittle their looks — hurtful and offensive, to be sure, but something most high-profile women have a lot of practice handling.

Though Clinton lost the 2016 election, many felt she won the debates (and, of course, she won the national popular vote). And this week’s debates were another reminder that not only can a woman hold her own in a debate against Trump, a woman might actually be uniquely suited to beating him.

Trump’s debate style actually makes a woman more likely to beat him

Worry about a woman losing to Trump in 2020 runs deep. In a June Daily Beast/Ipsos poll, 74 percent of voters said they would be comfortable with a female president, but just a third said their neighbors would. Meanwhile, as Vox’s Tara Golshan wrote earlier this month, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, two white men in their 70s, were leading in polls going into the debates, even though polls suggest that, given a choice, Democrats might prefer a candidate who isn’t an older white man. So for some Americans, the debates this week weren’t just a test of who was the best candidate. They were also a test of whether a woman could really win.

By any measure, Harris and other female candidates passed. As Vox’s Ezra Klein wrote, Harris “tore into Biden’s comments about segregationists and his record on busing in a way that left him sputtering onstage, and that carried the meta-message that she’d be able to confront Trump with the same cool precision.” She also cut through her opponents’ interruption-fest on education with a lighthearted jibe — “America does not want a food fight, they want to know how we’ll put food on their table” — that made her look like the adult in the room.

But other female candidates had strong showings too. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won applause when she took Gov. Jay Inslee to task for saying he was the only candidate to have achieved something on abortion rights. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand made an impact with her comments on the Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for most abortions. Sen. Elizabeth Warren showed the calm and clear grasp of policy that has been her trademark, and Wednesday night’s debate was essentially a referendum on her plans.Any of the female candidates onstage this week could probably perform well in a debate against Trump, up to and including Marianne Williamson, who would probably out-weird him. And in all their cases, their gender wouldn’t be a stumbling block they’d have to get over to beat Trump onstage. It would actually help them.

In the 2016 primary debates, when Trump wasn’t zoning out, he was trying to question his opponents’ masculinity and assert his own. He repeatedly called Rubio “Little Marco.” He also took Rubio to task for making fun of his allegedly small hands (a longtime dig against Trump).

“Look at those hands,” he said. “Are they small hands? And he referred to my hands — if they’re small, something else must be small. I guarantee you there’s no problem, I guarantee.”

That was the only time he actually bragged about his penis size, but the implication was there throughout. It was a piece of his general strategy against his opponents throughout the primary campaign — accuse them in coded or not-so-coded ways of lacking virility, as when he accused Jeb Bush of being “low-energy.”

It makes sense that Trump’s debate and campaign style often devolved into a form of gendered bullying — he spent most of his career in the male-dominated real estate development business. He also spent his formative years at the all-male New York Military Academy, where, as a captain, he was in charge of whipping other boys into shape (until he was reassigned for mysterious reasons).

But treating debate as a literal dick-measuring contest doesn’t work when your opponent is a woman. Instead, Trump has typically resorted to insulting women’s appearance, as when he reportedly said of Republican presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina, “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that?” He’s also tried physical intimidation, looming creepily behind Hillary Clinton on the debate stage. At a rally soon after, he insulted her body, saying, “when she walked in front of me, believe me, I wasn’t impressed.”

But women, especially those who have been in the public eye, are unfortunately used to these tactics. Take E. Jean Carroll, who says that Trump sexually assaulted her in the 1990s. In response to her story, Trump said she was “not my type” — Carroll, who wrote in New York magazine that Trump was one of several men to attack her over the course of her life, fired back, “I’m so glad I’m not his type.”

Clinton, meanwhile, has written that Trump’s looming made her “incredibly uncomfortable.” But she chose to ignore him and didn’t let it affect her debate performance. “Maybe I have overlearned the lesson of staying calm, biting my tongue, digging my fingernails into a clenched fist, smiling all the while, determined to present a composed face to the world,” she wrote in her 2017 book What Happened. Her response to Trump’s bluster was to laugh at him, and polls afterward showed Americans thought she won the debates, even though she ultimately didn’t win the election.

Many women have had to learn the same lesson Clinton did — including the women of the 2020 Democratic field. Being in the public eye as a woman can be a trial by fire, and there’s evidence that the women who make it to high office are toughened by the experience. As Golshan writes, some political science research suggests that “because women have to work harder to prove themselves in the electoral process, they actually perform better when they get into office.”

The women onstage largely showed that their experience has made them into effective debaters, easily able to shut down male opponents. Harris certainly showed she knows how to handle interruptions, and Klobuchar’s exchange with Inslee showed she can easily put a man in his place.

None of this shows that a woman can definitely beat Trump in an election — that’s not something we can know at this stage, though research suggests that women are actually just as “electable” as men. There are also lots of factors voters can use to make their primary decisions; “who would win in a debate against Trump” is far from the only question to be asked. But this week’s debates should put to rest the idea that a woman won’t be able to go head to head with Trump on national TV and win. The women onstage showed their strength this week — and what’s more, recent history shows that where Trump is concerned, they would actually have an advantage.

Poll: Biden leads Democratic field in Maine with Warren in second place

The Hill reported that Former Vice President Joe Biden holds the lead among voters in Maine's Democratic presidential primary, according to a new poll. In a survey from Gravis Marketing, Biden was supported by 25 percent of registered Democratic voters, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) edged out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to take second place, though the two are within the poll's margin of error at 17 percent and 15 percent, respectively. The poll also found President Trump losing the state too much of the Democratic primary field, including Biden, Sanders, and Warren as well as other Democratic contenders including Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Sanders, Warren and Biden were the only three candidates to break double-digit support levels in the poll. Buttigieg came in fourth at 8 percent.“It is important to note that Sen. Sanders won the Maine Democratic caucus in 2016,” Doug Kaplan, Gravis's president, said in a press release accompanying the poll. “However, Maine is now moving over to a primary system for their 2020 Primary Election which will most certainly alter the electorate that will participate in choosing the Democratic Nomination.”

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) could possibly face a tough reelection fight, according to the poll, which found her leading her announced Democratic challenger by double digits but with even favorable and unfavorable ratings at 48 percent. The poll surveyed 767 registered Maine voters including 243 registered Democratic primary voters on June 24. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, while the margin among Democratic voters is 6.3 percentage points.

Yes, democrats are paying plenty of attention to the 2020 election

Political junkies might think the whole country is devotedly following the 2020 presidential campaign (FiveThirtyEight certainly is). But remember, the election is still more than a year away. So it’s definitely fair to ask just how many people are already tuning in.

And with this in mind, a new survey from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 35 percent of Democrats1 said they were paying “a good deal” or “a lot” of attention to the campaign so far. Or in other words, only about one-third of Democrats are seriously following the goings-on of the campaign.

But one-third seemed a bit low to me, given that other pollsters have found that Democrats care a lot about picking a candidate they think can defeat President Trump this year, so I took a look at what other pollsters have found this cycle. I found that Quinnipiac University has asked a version of this question three times so far in 2019, finding each time that Democrats are paying quite a bit of attention to the race. For example, 74 percent said they were either paying “a lot” or “some” attention in the most recent survey.

Other polling bites

A new report from the Pew Research Center shows a huge partisan gap over Americans’ attitudes toward capitalism and socialism. Republicans had sharply positive views of capitalism, with 78 percent holding a positive view and just 20 percent holding a negative one. But Democrats held mixed views: 55 percent had a positive impression while 44 percent had a negative one. Conversely, socialism was thoroughly disliked by Republicans, with only 15 percent holding a positive view and 84 percent holding a negative one. But Democrats were much more positive. Sixty-five percent had a positive impression and 33 percent had a negative one.4

New polling from Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group suggests that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might make a better target for Democratic candidates in 12 battleground states than President Trump. The survey, sponsored by campaign finance reform group End Citizens United, found Democrats ahead 48 percent to 45 percent on the generic ballot in those swing states. The pollster tested three different messages using McConnell, Trump, and Republicans in Congress as foils to see how they changed voting intention.

The language about McConnell produced the largest Democratic gain in the margin on the generic ballot — nine percentage points — while the language about Republicans in Congress and Trump increased the Democratic edge by six and three points, respectively.
According to a survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted just before the first Democratic debates, health care was the topic Democrats5 wanted to hear about most — 87 percent said it was very important for the candidates to talk about it. Other issues that were top priorities included: issues affecting women (80 percent), climate change (73 percent), gun policy (72 percent) and income inequality (70 percent).

Speaking of the debates, a number of candidates spoke in Spanish at different points, and YouGov recently found that 42 percent of Americans thought candidates are “pandering” when doing this versus 31 percent who believed they are being “respectful.” Among Democrats, 46 percent felt it was respectful compared to 32 percent who said it was pandering. Hispanic Americans also were more likely to view it as respectful (37 percent) than pandering (27 percent).
Young voters were an important part of Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign in 2016, and new polling from Chegg/College Pulse found that Democratic college students6 are more supportive of the Vermont senator than other candidates. The group’s latest data showed Sanders with 26 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 20 percent, Biden at 17 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent. However, this represents continued improvement for Warren, who was in the single digits in April, while Sanders has slid from the low 30s to where he is now.
A new report from the Public Religion Research Institute found that only a relatively small share of Americans support refusing services to various minority groups for religious reasons, but that the share has increased in the past five years. Among the key findings was that 30 percent of Americans support business owners refusing service to LGBTQ individuals if it violates their religious beliefs. In 2014, only 16 percent of Americans supported this position.
Last week, President Trump decided to hold off on ordering a military strike against Iran, which had shot down a U.S. surveillance drone. A new HarrisX poll found that 26 percent of Americans support taking military action against Iran while 39 percent oppose such a move. Another 34 percent said they were not sure.


 

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