By Saeed Sobhani

Trump: one step to fire!

October 12, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump is having a terrible day! According to the latest news and opinion polls inside the United States, most American citizens now agree with his impeachment and removal from office.

Of course, Trump is not concerned about his impeachment, given the combination of the Senate and the Republican presence in the Senate, but he is deeply concerned about the impact this has on public opinion.

Trump is worried that his impeachment in the House and Senate will affect his popularity. Trump's popularity is now dwindling in important states like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If this trend continues, Trump will no longer be President of the United States of America! Here's a look at the latest news and polls in the United States:

Fox News Poll: Record support for Trump impeachment

Just over half of voters want President Trump impeached and removed from office, according to a Fox News Poll released Wednesday. A new high of 51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40 percent oppose impeachment altogether. In July, 42 percent favored impeachment and removal, while 5 percent said impeach but don’t remove him, and 45 percent opposed impeachment. Since July, support for impeachment increased among voters of all stripes: up 11 points among Democrats, 5 points among Republicans and 3 among independents. Support also went up among some of Trump’s key constituencies, including white evangelical Christians (+5 points), white men without a college degree (+8), and rural whites (+10).

Among voters in swing counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016), support for impeachment increased to 52 percent, up from 42 percent in July. A lot has happened since the July Fox poll on impeachment -- namely, the launch of an impeachment inquiry in the House following allegations Trump improperly pressured Ukraine to investigate the Bidens’ dealings in that country. The 9-point increase in support for impeachment since July, however, doesn’t appear to be based solely on the latest allegations. To that point, more Democrats favor impeaching Trump (85 percent) than consider his call with Ukraine’s president an impeachable offense (76 percent). The same holds true among independents: 39 percent favor impeachment, while 30 percent describe the Ukraine call as impeachable. 

The 4-in-10 voters opposing impeachment give a variety of reasons, including Trump did nothing wrong (21 percent), it is politically motivated (20 percent), and don’t believe allegations (15 percent). Approval of Trump’s job performance is down a couple of points to 43 percent, while 55 percent disapprove. Last month, it was 45-54 percent.  Currently, 86 percent of Republicans approve compared to 89 percent in September.

Some 51 percent of voters think the Trump administration is more corrupt than previous administrations, up from 46 percent last month. By a 66-25 percent margin, voters say it is generally inappropriate for Trump to ask foreign leaders to investigate political rivals. When asked about Trump’s phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart that is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry, 17 percent believe it was appropriate. Most either describe it as an impeachable offense (43 percent) or as inappropriate but not impeachable (27 percent). Trump has called the Ukraine phone call “perfect.” Even some Republicans aren’t convinced: 9 percent say it was an impeachable offense, 38 percent inappropriate but not impeachable, and 36 percent appropriate.

Overall, by an 11-point margin, more voters believe Trump is “getting what he deserves” rather than that the impeachment inquiry is driven by “people out to get him.”

During President Bill Clinton’s 1998 impeachment, by a 3-point margin, more thought “people were out to get” him than believed Clinton was “getting what he deserved.”
Meanwhile, voters think President Trump is just out for himself. Fifty-five percent overall and 18 percent of Republicans say he is doing what’s best for Trump. Thirty-nine percent think he puts the country first. Thirty-eight percent find the situation surrounding Trump’s dealings with Ukraine extremely troubling, while 19 percent say the same about the allegations about Biden and his son’s business dealings in Ukraine.

Negative views outnumber positive views for the impeachment players. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s favorability rating is underwater by 6 points (42 percent favorable vs. 48 percent unfavorable). Still, that’s a new high and gives her the highest favorable rating of Capitol Hill leadership tested in the poll. 

House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA) is also viewed more negatively than positively by 6 points (27-33), although 4 voters in 10 are unable to rate him. 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is in negative territory by 23 points (26-49) and 25 percent can’t rate him. Voters have a negative view of both Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani by 22 points (31-53) and Attorney General William Barr by 14 points (24-38). Trump’s popularity ticked up a point since the inquiry: 43-56 percent vs. 42-56 percent in August. Hillary Clinton’s ratings roughly match Trump’s:  41 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable. The previous Fox News poll showed her at 40-57 percent in June 2017. Vice President Mike Pence stands at 40-49 percent compared to 39-48 percent two months ago. Trump has an 84 percent favorable among Republicans compared to 70 percent for Pence and 43 percent for McConnell, while 69 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Pelosi.

More have a positive rather than a negative view of the Democratic Party by 2 points (49 favorable vs. 47 unfavorable), while the Republican Party is underwater by 15 (40-55).  Part of that is explained by more Democrats (85 percent favorable) viewing their party positively than Republicans do theirs (79 percent favorable). 

Voters are inclined to see the motives of Republican lawmakers as more political. By a 3-point margin, more think congressional Democrats truly believe Trump committed an impeachable offense than say Democrats just want to hurt him politically. 

On the other side, by a 23-point margin, more think congressional Republicans just want to protect Trump politically than say GOP lawmakers sincerely believe what he did is not impeachable. Overall, voters remain dissatisfied with the job Congress is doing: 21 percent approve, while 63 percent disapprove.  In May, it was 21-66 percent. Conducted October 6-8, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,003 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered 

 Trump approval dips among Republicans

As The Hill reported, President Trump’s approval rating dipped slightly among Republican voters, though it is relatively steady among voters overall, according to the latest Hill-HarrisX poll released Friday. The nationwide survey shows 83 percent of GOP voters saying they approve of the president’s job performance, marking a 2-point drop from an identical poll conducted Aug. 18-20.

Trump’s overall approval rating remains steady, ticking up 1 percentage point from the previous poll to 47 percent, while 53 percent disapprove. The president's approval rating rose 3 points among independent voters compared to the previous poll; he now is supported by 46 percent of independents in the poll. Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) last week became the third Republican to launch a bid to challenge Trump for the GOP's presidential nomination in 2020.

He joins former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld (R) and former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) in announcing a primary campaign against Trump, who remains widely popular in the party.

Sanford insisted Wednesday that his presidential bid isn’t about hurting Trump’s chances for reelection, but rather about improving the ideas of the Republican Party as a whole. All three challengers face an uphill battle in seeking to take on Trump. Some states, including South Carolina and Nevada, have moved to cancel their primary elections recently. The Hill-HarrisX survey was conducted online among 1,000 registered voters between Sept. 11-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Independents move in favor of impeachment inquiry; GOP stays firmly against

Also, NPR reported that Support for the House impeachment inquiry into President Trump is on the rise. A slim majority of Americans now approve of the Democratic House-led impeachment inquiry into President Trump, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. 52 percent say they approve of the inquiry, while 43% disapprove. That's a slight increase in support from two weeks ago when 49% approved and 46% disapproved. The numbers are in line with other polls that have been released this week also showing majority support or an increase in support for the inquiry.

Adam Schiff, The Surprising Face Of The Impeachment Inquiry Into President Trump

The uptick in support in the NPR poll comes mostly from a swing among independents. In late September, more independents disapproved of the inquiry than approved, by a 50-44% margin. Now, in a reversal, more independents approve of the inquiry than disapprove, by a 54-41% margin, a net change of 19 points. On the questions of whether Trump should be impeached or removed from office, Americans are split — 49-47% in favor of impeachment and 48-48% on whether the Senate should vote to remove him.

While Americans' support is growing for the impeachment inquiry and a slim majority (51%) thinks the inquiry is a very serious matter and not "just politics," they are unconvinced impeachment is the right way to decide the future of Trump's presidency.

By a 58-37% margin, Americans think his future should be decided at the ballot box rather than by the impeachment process.

"There's a danger point in this for the White House, but also some danger points for Democrats in Congress because people are not convinced this is the way to go," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the poll.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 3 through Tuesday, Oct. 8. The previous poll from Marist dealing with impeachment was conducted Sept. 25, after the White House released its record of the phone call between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine, but before the whistleblower complaint was made public.

Republicans firmly against, but Americans don't approve of Trump's behavior

Republicans are dug in against the impeachment inquiry with nearly 9 in 10 disapproving of it. Two-thirds also say they would be less likely to vote for their representative from Congress if that lawmaker votes to impeach Trump. Despite the lack of enthusiasm for impeachment, Americans don't approve of Trump's recent behavior, don't think he shares Americans' moral values and are pessimistic about the direction the country is headed. For example, 68% say it's not acceptable to ask a foreign country's leader for help investigating a potential political opponent; that includes 40% of Republicans. And 61% say Trump does not share the moral values most Americans try to live by, and just 35% say the country is headed in the right direction. The moral values question is similar to how Americans viewed former President Bill Clinton in the year he was impeached — 62% said Clinton did not share Americans' moral values, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll from September 1998.

What's more, 59% say the identity of the whistleblower who filed a complaint about Trump's call with Zelenskiy should be protected. That includes 6 in 10 independents and about a third of Republicans. Other answers in the survey should continue to raise red flags for the president and his reelection campaign team, including that 52% say they will vote against Trump in 2020, and just 42% approve of the job the president is doing.

Those numbers have barely budged and have been consistent throughout Trump's presidency. Part of the reason for the lack of movement, the pollsters say, is the lack of overall trust in institutions that the survey measured. The courts were the most trusted (58%), followed by the intelligence community, including the CIA and FBI (57%), that elections are fair (51%), Democrats in the U.S. House (41%), the Trump administration (40%), Republicans in the U.S. Senate (39%), Congress (31%), and lastly, the media (29%).

While 70% of Democrats trust the intelligence community, just 54% of Republicans and independents do. And while 60% of Democrats trust the media, just 8% of Republicans and only a quarter of independents do.
What's more, views of Congress have changed dramatically since the impeachment of Clinton in 1998. Back then, 58% said they thought most members of Congress share the moral values most Americans try to live by, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll. Today, it's the opposite — just 37% say members of Congress share the moral values of most Americans, while 56% say they don't. There's some evidence that Republicans are beginning to check out of the news on the controversies surrounding impeachment. In the last survey at the end of September, 80% of Republicans said they were following the news about the impeachment inquiry at least fairly closely. In this poll, that's dropped 12 points, while Democrats and independents have essentially maintained their levels.

"We're in a period that the institutions that guided us through these processes are not trusted," Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist Poll said of impeachment during the Clinton and Nixon years. "There's a lack of trust among those institutions, so that makes this uncharted terrain because people are being guided by whose side that they think they are on."

Trump has continued to accuse former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter of wrongdoing in Ukraine, though evidence does not support those claims. Trump has pointed to the Bidens' "corruption" amid accusations of his wrongdoing in dealing with the country.

Most people, by a 50%-28% margin, think that effort will hurt Biden. His favorability rating has ticked down slightly from 44% in September to 41% now — within the poll's margin of error.

The controversy has not hurt Biden with Democrats, but there has been a slight eroding with independents and Republicans. In September, Biden had a 72%/20% positive rating from Democrats, and now, it's a near-identical 71%/19%. Among independents, though, it went from 43%/48% positive to 39%/46%; and among Republicans, it was 21%/72% positive in September and is 16%/74% now. By a 45-42% margin, Americans say Biden shares their moral values. That's higher than Trump, but the jury is still out, suggesting that Biden's response to the controversy over the next several weeks before the first voting in the Democratic nominating contest will be critical. Overall, Americans are split 44-43% on whether impeachment will help Democrats or whether it will help Trump. How impeachment is handled could be crucial in determining who Americans want to put in charge of Congress after 2020 as well. Democrats have just a 3-point advantage, 43-40%, on the question of which party's candidate people would vote for in their district if the elections were held today. That's half of what it was in November 2018 (50-44%), just as Democrats took back the U.S. House by sweeping a net of 40 seats out of Republican hands in the midterms.

Fox News Poll: Biden and Warren gain ground in Democratic race

Biden calls for Trump's impeachment for the first time.2020 hopeful Joe Biden says the president has violated his oath of office and betrayed the nation; Griff Jenkins reports from Washington. Together Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren capture the support of more than half of Democratic primary voters, according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2020 election. Biden stays on top in the race with 32 percent support among primary voters, up 3 points since September.  He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent -- that’s up 6 points and a new high for her. Bernie Sanders is at 17 percent, down 1 point since last month. While Biden’s support has stayed between 29-35 percent since March, his current 10-point advantage is about half of his 19-point lead in June.

The rundown continues with Kamala Harris at 5 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 4 percent, Beto O’Rourke at 3 percent, and Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang each at 2 percent.  Michael Bennet, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, and Marianne Williamson receive 1 percent apiece. Biden retains top billing with strong support among non-whites, voters over age 45, and moderates/conservatives.  Warren has strengthened her position by increasing support among suburban voters, very liberals, and men.

When Democratic primary voters’ first and second choice preferences are considered together, Biden and Warren tie at 45 percent support, Sanders is at 34 percent, Harris 15 percent and Buttigieg 13 percent. President Trump’s allegations about improper actions by Biden and his son have so far failed to chip away at Biden’s support in the primary race -- and Democratic primary voters continue to believe the former vice president is the candidate best equipped to beat Trump in 2020:  43 percent feel that way, up from 42 percent last month.  Nineteen percent think Warren has the best chance to oust Trump and 15 percent say, Sanders. At the same time, the poll finds the three top Democratic candidates with sizable leads over the president in potential head-to-head matchups. The poll, released Thursday, shows Biden (50-40 percent) and Warren (50-40 percent) both top Trump by 10 points, and Sanders is up by 9 (49-40 percent).  This marks the first time all three Democrats have held a lead outside the poll’s margin of error.  Last month, Biden was up by 14 points, Warren by 6 and Sanders by 8.“If Warren continues to poll as strongly against Trump as the former vice president, it makes it increasingly difficult for the Biden team to keep making the argument he is the most electable candidate,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.

The impeachment inquiry hasn’t caused any real shifts in the ballot test, as Trump’s support in the two-way matchups has been between 37-42 percent all year.  However, the poll finds an 8-point shift since last month in the number expecting Trump will be re-elected.  In September, more thought he would win by a 6-point margin and now more expect he won’t by 2 points. And while most Republican primary voters want to keep Trump as their party’s nominee, nearly one in five, 17 percent, would like to see someone else run. “So far, Trump has been able to keep his Republican base on board,” says Shaw. “If the percentage opposing his re-nomination creeps into the 20s, that would be a troubling sign.”

Meanwhile, voters continue to believe Donald Trump is dishonest.  Sixty-three percent say that -- far more than the 35 percent who think he is honest and trustworthy.  By the way, that’s the same number who said Trump was honest before he won the 2016 election. Vice President Mike Pence does a bit better than his boss, although not by much:  39 percent say he’s honest and 54 percent say dishonest.

On the other side, each of the top three Democratic candidates receives positive ratings on this measure.  Sanders performs best with 59 percent saying he is honest and trustworthy (36 percent disagree).  Fifty percent think Warren is honest vs. 44 percent dishonest, and for Biden, voters split 48-47 percent. Among Democrats, 87 percent think Sanders is honest and trustworthy, while 81 percent feel that way about Warren and 75 percent Biden.  Seventy-three percent of Republicans say Trump is honest.

Currently, 51 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Sanders, while 43 percent view him negatively.  That puts him in positive territory by 8 points.  More view Warren positively by 7 points (46 favorable vs. 39 unfavorable) and Biden by 6 (50 favorable vs. 44 unfavorable). The ratings are closer to even for Buttigieg (+3 points), Yang (+3), Booker (-2), Harris (-3) and O’Rourke (-4).  They each also have large numbers who have never heard of them or have no opinion of them.  For example, 43 percent of voters are unable to rate Yang, while 36 percent can’t rate Buttigieg and 32 percent can’t rate Booker.

Voters view Trump more negatively than positively by 13 points (43-56).  His favorable rating was underwater by 22 points in the days leading up to the 2016 election (38-60). 

Twice as many primary voters say Trump’s allegations make them more likely to vote for Biden (21 percent more vs. 10 percent less), while twice as many say health concerns make them less (31 percent) rather than more likely (15 percent) to vote for Sanders in the primary. Sanders is off the campaign trail since suffering a heart attack on October 3.  He’s 78 years old, while Biden is 76, Trump is 73, and Warren is 70. Conducted October 6-8, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,003 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters and 4.5 points for Democratic primary voters (484).

But USA TODAY reported that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has taken over the top spot in several recent national presidential primary polls as candidates prepare to debate Oct. 15. Most national polls since the end of September have found Warren – not former Vice President Joe Biden – leading the pack but by relatively narrow margins. Biden had led in almost every national poll, usually by double digits, going back to 2018. But Warren has come out on top in four of the past five and six of the past 10. 

And she recently pulled ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, a frequently cited polling benchmark. Though she is in front of Biden only by 0.2%, it marks the first time Biden has not held the lead in the race's RCP average since the site began comparing the polls in December. The most recent poll to place her at the top was released Tuesday by Quinnipiac University. That poll found her ahead of Biden 29%-26%. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont came in third at 16%. Among those who described themselves as "very liberal," Warren led Biden 38%-26%, and among the "somewhat" liberals she led 37%-23%. Biden led among moderate and conservative Democrats 35%-22%.

"Warren maintains her strength in the Democratic primary, which has been consistently growing since the start of her campaign. This poll confirms her status as a co-frontrunner with Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. The poll found that Warren held narrow leads with both men and women and that she had a 12-percentage-point lead with white voters. Biden was favored by black voters 36%-20% and by voters over 65 by a 41%-26% margin. 

The survey was conducted Oct. 4-7 from among 1,483 self-identified registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%. Warren also has performed well in the early primary states that can be key to securing the nomination. Last month, a Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll found her leading in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, and a Monmouth University poll put her narrowly ahead of Biden in New Hampshire. A  Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Poll released on Sept. 24 placed her just 4 points behind Biden in Nevada, the third state where primary voters will cast their ballots. 

Biden maintains a comfortable 41%-12% lead over Warren in South Carolina, the fourth state on the primary calendar, according to a recent Fox News poll. The former vice president's drop in the polls comes as President Donald Trump and his attorney Rudy Giuliani have mounted a public campaign accusing Biden of impropriety in Ukraine during his time in office. Trump's effort to pressure Ukraine to dig deeper into the matter has sparked an impeachment inquiry. 

Tuesday's poll from Quinnipiac shows that voters approve of the impeachment inquiry 53%-43% and that 45% think Trump should be removed from office while 49% do not. The margin had been 37%-57% in a Quinnipiac poll before the inquiry launched. Only 34% said they approved of the way Trump has responded to the impeachment inquiry, compared with 57% who disapproved. But 43% agreed with the president that it was a "political witch hunt," while 51% said it was a "legitimate investigation." 

Though Trump has said his effort to push Ukraine to investigate Biden was motivated by a desire to battle corruption rather than taint a political opponent, only 33% of voters bought that explanation, and 48% said he was out to hurt a rival. Twenty percent weren't yet certain or thought both reasons were true. Polls have consistently found that Democratic voters care more about picking a candidate in 2020 who can defeat Trump than any particular policy issue. When asked whom they would vote for if the election was held today, Quinnipiac found that both Warren and Biden would beat the incumbent president – Biden by a margin of 51%-40% and Warren by a margin of 49%-41%. Trump indirectly acknowledged Warren's rise in the polls in a tweet Tuesday in which he called on his 2016 Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton to "enter the race to try and steal it away from Uber Left Elizabeth Warren." 

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