By Mohammad Mazhari

Democrats are likely to lose the House in the fall elections: professor

May 10, 2022 - 8:49

TEHRAN - An American professor believes that Democrats may lose the November congressional elections based on “all available data”.

“All available data indicate the Democrats are likely to lose the House in the fall elections,” Robert C. Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University, tells the Tehran Times.

“The only question is the size of the loss. The Democrats have a chance to maintain control of the Senate, depending on who the Republicans nominate in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.”

During the midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. 

“(A) reelection (of Trump) would reinforce his worst character deficits and would not bode well for the American democracy.”Professor Smith also sees no evidence that Biden’s mental health is impaired as claimed by Republicans, saying, “Given his age and fragility this is a concern of a significant part of the electorate but it is not likely to have an impact on the upcoming election.”

Republican senators have been promoting the idea that if they win control of Congress, they will consider passing legislation requiring Biden to take a cognitive test each year he’s in office.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: How do you see the status of Democrats and Republicans if we had an election just now?

A: All available data indicate the Democrats are likely to lose the House in the fall elections. The only question is the size of the loss. The Democrats have a chance to maintain control of the Senate, depending on who the Republicans nominate in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Q: Biden's critics accuse him of cognitive disability. To what extent can this affect the results of the upcoming elections?

A: I have seen no evidence that the President’s mental health is impaired. However, given his age and fragility, this is a concern of a significant part of the electorate but it is not likely to have an impact on the upcoming election.

Q: Do you think Trump enjoys sufficient support among the public or his popularity is just limited to Republican masses?

A: Trump, according to the polls, has enough support among Republicans to make a credible run for the nomination in 2024. However, his support among independents and Democrats is no greater than in 2020. Yet his chances to be elected again depend on the state of the nation at the time and the Democratic nominee.

Q: Could you visualize a situation in which Trump is elected president again? 

A: As I write in my recent book “Questions of Character: The Presidency of Donald Trump”, Trump lacks the character to function as a competent president. His reelection would reinforce his worst character deficits and would not bode well for the American democracy.

Q: What are the main factors that will shape Americans' approach in upcoming presidential elections?

A: Usually, the main factor in U.S. presidential elections is the state of the economy but cultural and race issues can also be important, as well as a crisis in international politics.  
 

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