TEHRAN - These days the main question in international politics is with which agenda West Asia should press ahead after the wave of normalization between Iran and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

Recent rapid events in West Asia are interpreted from various aspects of international relations and foreign policy by international think tanks. The geopolitical developments and dynamics in the region have led to various discussions about the early end of the Abraham Accords due to Iran's diplomatic maneuvering in recent months and they also have raised many doubts about the effectiveness of the normalization process between Israel and Arab states. 

These developments have also been followed by concern and caution from the United States and Israel. From the perspective of the Washington-Tel Aviv axis, the resumption of Iran's relations with Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf is considered a threat that is meant to neutralize and even bring about the collapse of the arrangements and mechanisms built into the Abraham Accords. 

Therefore, news and analytical centers related to Israel have made efforts to promote the idea that the Abraham Accords are still working and that the reconnection of Arab governments with Iran will not harm the normalization process.

In this regard, on July 5, Israel Hayom, an Israeli news and analytical website, published an analysis by Salem Al Ketbi, a political analyst and former nominee for the Federal Supreme Council of the United Arab Emirates, which was also republished in the "Gulf News Syndicate". Al Ketbi argues from several angles that Tehran will not be able to disrupt or stop the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, despite Iran's significant progress at the regional and international levels.

The article states that the continuous improvement of Iran's relations with its neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council cannot sufficiently replace the existing and potential relations between some regional countries and Israel. This is primarily due to the foreign policy orientations of these countries, which aim to rebuild their foreign policies based on new principles that are diverse and widespread, and such goals require the creation of a wide network of cooperation that includes all existing and potential regional and international partners.

The author also argues that there are doubts about Iran's intentions towards peaceful relations with its southern neighbors in the Persian Gulf. Israel Hayom's analysis adds that Persian Gulf Cooperation Council member countries are aware of the fundamental changes taking place in the global system, emphasizing the importance of strengthening cooperation and interaction with all influential regional and global actors, without exception. As a result, these countries cannot accept the concept of blocs or alliances, whether in line with Iran against Israel or in accepting an alliance with Israel against Iran. Such an approach is contrary to the belief that the extent of Iran's diplomatic actions will inherently weaken Israel's position and the effectiveness of its regional dependence. According to the Emirati analyst, Iran's ambition to pursue the idea and aspiration of leading the Islamic world is another factor that will not disrupt the peace process between Israel and the Arabs.

The arguments presented in this report regarding the preservation of the Abraham Accords' superiority over the framework of Iran's relations with Arab governments in the region can be examined from several perspectives. Firstly, the geopolitical dynamics of West Asia are in a continuous process of change, which is entirely at the expense of Israel. This issue arises from the transfer of America's hegemonic role to China in West Asia. Beijing's stabilizing role in mediating between Tehran and Riyadh is a clear indication of this point. The increasing role of China in West Asia will automatically lead to an increase in the power of Iran and Russia. Consequently, Tel Aviv will have less support from the United States in the region, which has become more apparent following their withdrawal from Afghanistan.

As the region moves towards a multipolar order, Washington becomes more aware than ever before of the reduction of its hegemonic influence in West Asia. The region will witness an important meeting between China, Iran, and members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council in Beijing, as well as the third conference in Baghdad, by the end of this year, both of which the United States will be absent from.

The second perspective relates to the understanding of global policy changes, or in other words, the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one, among Arab countries and the new direction of foreign policy initiated by Arab governments. This is not an issue that will serve as a driving force to facilitate the normalization process between Arab countries and Israel. The Abraham Accords was a mechanism that was achieved under pressure from the United States and the Trump administration, and its coordinates were not mapped out with the unipolar American world order in mind, nor did it take into account global changes.

The Arab governments' reception of Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, Saudi Arabia's differences with the United States over the JCPOA, and the explicit statement by UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he was not under pressure to establish relations between Abu Dhabi and Moscow, along with the clear reference by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan to the intervention of some foreign countries in the region during his visit to Tehran, may indicate the failure of the Abraham Accords.

In addition, one of the main goals of the Abraham Accords was to isolate Iran and the Axis of Resistance in the region. Accordingly, Arab countries were involved in a bond and security partnership to confront and deal with potential threats from Iran under the "peace agreement with Israel" framework. The result of the revival of Arab relations with Iran means the failure of imposing a political-security isolation project against Iran in the region. This will at least temporarily render the Arab-Israeli security partnership against Iran under the framework of the Abraham Accords meaningless.

During the same period since the signing of the Abraham Accords, initiatives such as the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), which aimed to create a NATO-like organization consisting of Arab countries, Washington, and Tel Aviv, have failed. In addition, Israel's efforts to hold the Negev summit, with the support and participation of the Biden administration and the presence of the foreign ministers of the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, with a focus on creating a security structure based on deterrence against Iran, have not yielded any results and are collapsing.

In a situation where Arab countries have taken the lead in resuming their diplomatic relations with Iran, Iran's strategy to contain Israel in West Asia is not highly dependent on the revival of relations with Arab countries. According to Iranian officials, this strategy will be a separate goal. Unlike Israel, Tehran does not expect cooperation from the Persian Gulf Arab states against Tel Aviv.