TEHRAN - It took me a moment to understand the sounds that jolted me awake early Friday morning. The windows were rattling, and my first thought was an earthquake. Or maybe an accident at the construction site next door. Israeli attacks on residential buildings in Tehran were the furthest thing from my mind in those initial, disoriented minutes.

At first, no one could quite believe what was happening. How could the U.S. and Israel launch attacks on Iran in the middle of a diplomatic process? Just hours before the attack, I had talked to some of my colleagues who were preparing to travel to Oman for the sixth round of indirect nuclear talks with the U.S. later in the week. I heard some of them say they believed a breakthrough was possible this time. Some even cited Trump's earlier statements, where he claimed to have urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid attacking Iran. Even if Trump is "crazy," they argued, he seemed capable of clear thinking when it came to West Asia, understanding that another war in the region - especially one that involves Iran - would benefit no one.

But Trump turned out to be just as crazy and ignorant as we always knew he was. The U.S. president provided Israel with logistics and intelligence needed to strike residential buildings, nuclear facilities, and military sites across Iran while he was set to meet with Iranians in Oman. Over 250 civilians are dead now, along with a generation of top Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists.

Why did Israel attack Iran?  

Netanyahu claims the attacks aimed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons a justification few accept, even those minimally informed about Iran s nuclear program.  

The IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have confirmed time and time again that despite nuclear advancements, Iran has neither pursued nuclear weapons nor demonstrated political will to do so. If Iran develops such weapons in the future, it will likely be a direct result of Israel s brazen aggression, making them feel such arms are necessary.  

Furthermore, the regime's attacks on the Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities failed to cause significant damage. As per Iran's nuclear chief's latest announcement, both sites are currently operating normally. This did not come as a surprise, as the whole world had known for a while that the main part of Iran's nuclear facilities are placed deep under the ground, and that it is impossible to destroy them with conventional weapons. Netanyahu specifically, given his close ties with IAEA Director-general Rafael Grossi, was certainly aware of this fact. 

So why did Israel attack Iran? To understand why Iran was attacked, we must first examine the Israeli offensive.  

The regime s operation against Iran comprised three elements: assassinating military leaders, attacking nuclear sites, and terrorizing civilians.  

Israel believed its offensive would result in three things:
 
1. The assassination of top Iranian commanders would delay or prevent retaliation

2. All or a significant number of Iran's missile launchers, depots, and military sites would be destroyed through Friday's campaign

3. The killing of Iranian civilians and striking the heart of Tehran would pit the people against the government and spur an uprising

All assumptions proved false. While the loss of five of its top military leaders did deal a blow to Iran, it did not cripple the Iranian Armed Forces. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei took only a couple of hours to replace the assasinated generals. 

While we don't know how much damage Israel has managed to inflict on Iran's military assets, it is clear that a large part of the country's defensive and offensive calibilties are still in tact. 

Since the conflict began, Iran has launched multiple waves of missile strikes against the occupied territories, hitting critical targets like the Haifa oil refinery, the Mossad and Aman headquarters, military bases, and nuclear research centers. The Iranian Armed Forces had previously said that they have enough missiles to hit Israeli targets every day for two years.  

Another Israeli prediction that proved false was that given the various financial and societal issues gripping Iran in recent years, the people would choose to topple the government in order to "save" their lives. Netanyahu issued a message to the Iranian people, and later did an interview with a US-based Persian speaking channel to tell them he was only at war with the government, and that he wanted to bring Iranians freedom and prosperity. Iranians, however, know better than to trust a convicted war criminal. The Israeli aggression only made Iranians more united and even prompted well-known individuals with a long history of anti-goverment activisim to rally behind Ayatollah Khamenei.

What Israel gained and lost 

Netanyahu managed to gain a temporary period of Euphoria. But what he gambled was the Zionist regime s future. 

Settlers in the occupied territories are accustomed to waging war not facing existential threats. For the first time in Israel s history, its citizens fear for their lives. Iranian missiles strike at will, a reality Israelis recently confronted. As Hebrew media reports, residents barred by authorities from fleeing now pay smugglers to transport them by boat to Cyprus.

Journalists say they are appalled at what's happening, military analysts say Israel's interceptors, which have so far only downed older Iranian missiles designed to preoccupy air defense systems, will be out soon.
Netanyahu and Trump essentialy entered a war they can not finish. To me, it appears that they do not really know Iran. So, they must now sit back and watch Iran write the ending to their story.