TEHRAN – Iraq will hold its sixth parliamentary elections on November 11, in what may be the most consequential vote since 2003. 

More than 7,000 candidates from 31 coalitions, 38 parties, and 75 independent lists are competing for 329 seats in the Parliament, also known as the Council of Representatives, with Baghdad holding the largest share at 71 seats.

The elections come amid economic uncertainty, regional tension following the Zionist regime’s genocidal campaign in Gaza and aggression against other regional countries, as well as renewed debate over the direction of the Iraqi state. 

The Independent High Electoral Commission has disqualified over 800 candidates and distributed 1.5 million new biometric voter cards ahead of the polls.

Prime Minister Mohammad al-Sudani leads the Reconstruction and Development Alliance, campaigning under the slogan “Growth, Integrity, and Services.” His focus on rebuilding infrastructure and curbing corruption has earned him a reputation as a steady technocrat. 

Sudani has built a strong coalition that brings together 54 sitting members of parliament, along with key political figures such as Faleh al-Fayyad (chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces), Ahmed al-Asadi (current labor minister and leader of Bilad Sumer party) as well as members of veteran politician Ayad Allawi’s civil movement.

Former premier Nouri al-Maliki, heading the State of Law Coalition, remains a dominant though polarizing figure within the Coordination Framework. Other Shia leaders, Qais al-Khazali of the Sadiqoun List, Ammar al-Hakim of Al-Hikma, and Hadi al-Amiri of the Badr Organization, are contesting separately, highlighting growing competition within Iraq’s largest political camp.

Among Sunni blocs, former Parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi of Taqaddum has drawn attention by running in the capital Baghdad rather than his traditional hometown of Anbar province, aiming to expand his influence nationally. 

He faces competition from the Al-Siyada, Azm, Tafawoq, and Al-Qiyada alliances, which have benefited from renewed Sunni political mobilization following the passage of a general amnesty law that freed thousands of prisoners.

In the Kurdistan Region, the main contest is between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by the Barzani family, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). 

Both parties remain dominant in their respective strongholds, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, but their rivalry over oil revenues, governance, and disputed territories such as Kirkuk has persisted ahead of the vote, raising concerns about their ability to present a united Kurdish front in Baghdad.

This is Iraq’s most expensive vote to date, with campaign spending estimated at $9 billion. Observers report growing external involvement, as the United States, Persian Gulf Arab states, and others in the region funnel money into Iraqi politics to shape outcomes, something the election law forbids. 

The revised election law, reducing districts from 83 to 18, may favor large, established coalitions and could potentially diminish the power of independents who performed strongly in 2021.

Conspicuously missing from the ballot is Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist movement, which is boycotting the election. Sadr, whose followers held 73 parliamentary seats after the last election in 2021 but failed to form a governing coalition ultimately resigned from politics following the introduction of a 2023 election law. 

He is instead operating outside the formal political process, portraying himself as an anti-corruption reformer.

Analysts say Sadr seeks to influence politics through his grassroots networks, religious, charitable, and social, rather than direct parliamentary engagement. 

The boycott, however, could significantly lower turnout in Shia-majority provinces such as Baghdad and the south, benefitting well-organized blocs like al-Sudani’s and energizing Sunni and other parties whose voter bases appear more motivated.

On the other hand, several former Sadrist figures running as independents may draw support from voters who previously backed the Sadrist movement. 

The elections also play out under intense foreign pressure. Washington has pushed Baghdad to limit the influence of resistance factions including the Popular Mobilization Forces, using sanctions and control of dollar transfers as leverage. 

No single coalition is expected to secure an outright majority, making post-election alliances crucial. Al-Sudani’s chances of remaining prime minister depend largely on whether the Coordination Framework can maintain unity.

As Iraq heads to the polls, much is at stake. The election will decide whether the country can move toward greater stability and effective governance, or fall back into the political deadlock that has long stalled reform and progress.