TEHRAN — Two and a half weeks into Donald Trump’s illegal war against Iran, the U.S. president is facing a dual crisis that his advisers reportedly admit was grossly underestimated: The constriction of navigation at the Strait of Hormuz and a stunning diplomatic rebuke from NATO allies who are refusing to send warships to reopen it.

On Monday, a visibly frustrated Trump claimed the United States did not need help after all. "We don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world,” Trump said. But the president’s bravado did little to mask the reality of a coalition in tatters and a waterway firmly under Iranian control.

Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, Iran has made good on its longstanding threat to constrict global oil supplies. On March 1, Tehran formally declared it was limiting navigation through Hormuz and has since attacked more than 15 vessels refusing to abide by the new orders. The result is a 97 percent drop in vessel transits.

Before the war, Trump had reportedly dismissed Iran’s warnings concerning the Hormuz Strait as bluffing. 

In early February, just weeks before the outbreak of the war, Iran conducted live-fire military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily closing parts of the waterway. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) fired missiles toward targets in the strategic waterway, sending a signal of its readiness to control traffic if attacked. The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the late Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, warned at the time that while the U.S. claims the strongest army, “the strongest army in the world can sometimes be hit so hard it cannot get up”.

According to a report by Axios cited by multiple outlets, members of Trump’s inner circle are now experiencing deep "buyer’s remorse," acknowledging that the administration underestimated Iran’s resilience and the effectiveness of its Strait of Hormuz strategy. One source described Trump as "high on his own supply," having overestimated Washington’s ability to topple the Iranian government, only to fall into what the website described as "escalation trap" in the strait. Trump reportedly believed that by assassinating Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, the Islamic Republic would collapse in less than 72 hours. 

While Trump miscalculated Iran’s resolve, he also misjudged the willingness of his allies to come to his rescue. Over the weekend, Trump urged NATO members and other partners to send warships to force the strait open, warning that a refusal would be "very bad for the future of NATO". The response has been a diplomatic rout.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius dismissed the request outright, stating, "This is not our war; we did not start it," adding that sending more warships would not help achieve a diplomatic solution. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed that his country "will not be drawn into the wider war". French, Italian, Spanish, and Polish officials similarly ruled out sending naval forces into the conflict, emphasizing that the war was "a war of choice" for America, not a defensive NATO mission.

The refusal by European powers to engage in Trump’s "team effort" highlights the diplomatic isolation of the United States in this conflict and stands as a tacit recognition that Iran’s actions are a direct response to unprovoked aggression, analysts have pointed out.

The economic consequences of the closure have been swift and severe and are already becoming unprecedented in recent decades. As the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a quarter of the global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas. With traffic down 97 percent, the global energy market is in shock.

International benchmark Brent crude, which stood at $71.32 per barrel just before the war began, spiked to $77.24 immediately after the first strikes and has since broken the $100 per barrel mark. In Europe and Asia, natural gas prices have surged by more than 60 percent since late February.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development warned that higher energy, fertilizer, and transport costs — including skyrocketing insurance premiums now four to five times higher than before the conflict — will “increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable”.

It is unclear what goal Trump is currently pursuing in his war against Iran, given that his primary objective—toppling the Islamic Republic—has failed. Iranians say they will continue their operations, which also include relentless attacks on U.S. regional bases and Israel, until they are certain they will not be attacked again. 

The current war comes less than nine months after the 12-day war in June. Both wars were imposed on Iran while Tehran and Washington were in the midst of nuclear negotiations.