TEHRAN (PIN) – Restricting Iran’s oil export will be followed by a severe shock in international oil market, which will greatly increase global oil prices.

Manuchehr Takin, a senior upstream oil industry analyst at Institute for International Energy Studies, told Petroenergy Information Network that Iran is currently facing no problem for oil export and is successful with regard to marketing too.

“The country is not facing internal threats such as explosion in oil pipelines. Negotiations on gas exports have also been stated a few years ago and the only thing which can restrict Iran’s oil export is the current standoff about Iran’s nuclear case,” he noted.

Takin opined that the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Iran is remote because there is no ready substitute for Iran’s oil production.

“The surplus production capacity of the Saudi Arabia is 1-1.5 million barrels per day and most of it is heavy oil with high sulfur content. The number of refineries which can treat that kind of oil is few,” he said.

The expert noted that sanctioning Iran will entail serious market shock and nobody can predict how high prices would go.

Asked about impact of strategic oil reserves in member countries of International Energy Agency on stabilizing market, he said, “Strategic reserves are sufficient for 90 days and they will be used to cover energy needs of countries where those reserves exist,” he said.

The expert stated that those reserves are available to Japan and Australia as well as the United States and western European countries and other countries lack any form of oil reserves.

He said China is a major energy consumer which has just started to reserve oil.

“Therefore, cutting Iran’s production will be followed with a great shock in the market and will affect economic growth rate of countries,” he noted.