In recent weeks there was a rise of tension concerning Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s rejection of suspending its uranium enrichment activities was the major reason. Insisting on the issue, the Bush Administration pushed for the third resolution to be approved in the Security Council (UNSC). But there were some obstacles blocking this aim; first, the final IAEA report which concluded the absence of a military nuclear program in Iran and second, the resistance of two veto holder members of UNSC, Russia and China. That is why Bush Administration had increased its efforts in demonizing the Islamic Republic of Iran and trying to convince the international public opinion of Iran as threat.

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report on Iran shook the world. This report concluded with “high confidence” that Iran had no nuclear weapons program. This new version of NIE report was clearly in contradiction with the previous 2005 NIE report --saying ""with high confidence"" that Iran was ""determined"" to build nuclear weapons.
According to a former CIA officer, the mentioned report was ready to be published last year but it has been delayed as it had included dissenting views. The former CIA Officer Philip Geraldi confirmed it and added that intelligence analysts had to review and rewrite their findings three times, under the pressure imposed by the White House. But as per Geraldi, despite of all pressure, some analysts refused to put the conclusion not supported by evidence.
The National Intelligence Office informed President Bush in August 2007 that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. However, Bush continued to inflame the crisis by his warmongering statements. Bush tried to show Iran as an imminent threat by suggesting in October that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III”. That is why after the release of December 2007 NIE report, the U.S. public opinion and the Democrats criticized and interrogated their president. But a noteworthy majority was relieved by the report since the intelligence office did not make the same mistake as they did in Iraq and they prevented another possible war front.
The context of the report
The 2007 NIE report concludes that the Iran has no nuclear weapons program. In brief, the mentioned report differently from the intelligence report being prepared before the Iraq war is in parallel with the IAEA’s latest report that confirms the non-existence of a military nuclear program in Iran.
The position of U.S. administration on report
Immediately after the release of the report, Stephen Hadley, President Bush’s national security advisor, made a press conference. He tried to show the positive aspects of the report by saying that it contains positive news.
Hadley said that NIE report offers hope to solve the problem by diplomatic means and without use of force. But he could not give a satisfactory answer to the question why President Bush had continued to make harsh attacks on Iran even after being informed about the latest report in August 2007.
Democrats attacked Bush for ignoring the new intelligence report on October 17 when he raised the prospect of ""World War III"" if Iran would make nuclear weapons. It can be easily said that the report frustrated the hawks and strengthened the Democrat’s position in the U.S.
Iran’s reaction
Iranian government considered the report as a victory on one hand and as a political trap on the other hand. There were two different views about the report. The first bloc welcomed the U.S. decision to “correct” its claim that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program. But the second bloc said that it is a smart trick prepared for Iran. The group that thinks the report is a strategic trick to checkmate Iran in that nuclear game claims that Iran did not have any activity to be halted in 2003. And through these reports they try to create an image that Iran had a nuclear weapons program but it has been halted in response to international pressure. So if Iran accepts this report it will accept this claim as well.
International reactions to the NIE report
It should be underlined that the latest NIE report drew complex reactions of 5+1 members and Israel. Surely, the most excessive reaction came from Israel. Defense Minister Ehud Barak expressed skepticism over the NIE report, suggesting that Iran has ""probably since revived"" its weapons efforts. Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the Iranians had succeeded in hiding much of their nuclear progress from the Americans and that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad would have to be targeted with sanctions even if he was not pursuing nuclear weapons.
European Union kept its previous position on Iran and said that despite the report they still expected Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and until Iran resists, the negotiations for a third UNSC resolution will continue. Official statements from the EU-3 called for international pressure on Iran. But the situation is a little bit complex. The UNSC and the EU agreed on imposing sanctions on Iran thinking that Iran had a weapon program. But after the U.S. report the consensus on further sanctions has broken. Many EU members agreed that they have more time for diplomacy and negotiations.
Two of veto holder members of UNSC, China and Russia, gained a much stronger hand after report and hereafter they are determined on their objection to sanctions on Iran. The Chinese authorities’ statements saying that the situation has changed and the Council members will have to review their decisions on one hand, and the Russian authorities’ statements saying that Iran had never had a nuclear weapons program and that there is not evidence supporting the U.S. claim on the other hand clarifies the position of these two countries.
Other countries share the view that the report is similar to what IAEA report has been saying and this confirms that Iran’s nuclear dossier should return to IAEA.
Conclusion
It is said that the Bush Administration has been subject to lots of criticisms both inside and outside of the U.S. Its public opinion still interrogates the fact that why their president continued to inflame the crisis even after being informed of the NIE report content. Therefore, Bush Administration lost credit and world public opinion remembered the Iraq disaster once again.
The most significant feature of the report is its parallel position with the latest IAEA report which shows that the U.S. Intelligence Office has taken lessons from Iraq war and did not want to repeat the same mistake.
Since the report concludes that there is not a nuclear weapons program in Iran, the Bush Administration has lost its ground for a possible military attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Since Iran is never an imminent threat, so there is not a reason for U.S. to insist on any pre-condition for negotiations any more. Although the Bush Administration has tried to ignore the political crisis, their subsequent position on Iran is not yet clear due to public opinion criticism on one hand, Democrats’ pressure for a dialogue with Iran on the other. It seems that the possible dialogue between the U.S. and Iran will initiate in the next administration period. But Bush had better take this step in his period at least to show goodwill and an attempt to compensate the current political crisis in the country.
(Source: Turkish Weekly)