TEHRAN – The situation in the Gaza Strip remains volatile, failing to meet the hopes of its residents or the strategic objectives of the occupying Israeli regime. 

The four months that have passed since the Gaza truce came into effect can be divided into three distinct stages. The first, lasting approximately six weeks, represented the calmest and most constructive period, despite numerous violations by the Israeli regime. 

The second stage saw the regime ramp up its aggression, with more frequent and severe violations that quickly dispelled any previous optimism. 

Yet, a thin thread of hope remained, especially after it was announced three weeks ago, that the second phase of the truce agreement would take effect.

Since then, a third stage of the truce has seen the regime launch a new wave of escalation, striking at the core of the October 10 agreement. If left unchecked, this could trigger a return to full-scale war. 

Deadly aggression against civilians has surged across the Strip, moving beyond the so-called “Yellow Zone”. Now expanded westward, it borders Salah al-Din Street, Gaza’s main artery, which has been cut in several places. 

The occupation army is digging a 20-meter-deep, 6-meter-wide trench along the eastern “yellow line”. Equipped with sensors, it blocks access to over half of Gaza, potentially creating a permanent border that confines 2.25 million Palestinians to just 160 square kilometers. 

Several factors can be identified behind the increasing pace of the regime’s aggression. They all ultimately advance the vision of the occupation regime at the beginning of the genocide, which it seeks to achieve fully, or at least to a significant extent. 

One of these factors pertains to the political future of Netanyahu who believes his future and legacy are tied to decisively winning the Gaza battle. He is attempting to distance himself from the failures suffered by his security forces in the Strip by any means necessary. 

The Israeli premier, who is wanted by the ICC for war crimes, relies on sustaining the escalation in Gaza. This allows Netanyahu to evade legal accountability, whether for the corruption charges against him, or for his failure to prevent the October 7 attack. 

Alongside this, Netanyahu is attempting to position himself for the upcoming parliamentary elections, by shedding more Palestinian blood. He recognizes that the majority of Israeli society gravitates toward more violent and uncompromising leaders, and that this society favors those who employ force, foremost among them the oppressed Palestinian people. 

A second factor is the creation of new facts on the ground in Gaza to render it increasingly uninhabitable. The occupation regime pursues this to push the Strip’s residents toward emigration at a carefully planned stage, whether through escalation or through anticipated political steps that may materialize soon. 

According to numerous Hebrew media outlets, the occupation regime is attempting to instill despair in the hearts of Palestinians and prevent them from experiencing any sense of hope or confidence that their lives can return to normal. 

The third factor driving the escalation is preparation for a return to war in a future phase. Evidence for this can be found in numerous military movements in the eastern areas of the Strip. 

However, despite these developments, the situation in Gaza is not unfolding entirely according to the wishes and expectations of the regime and its fascist leaders. Numerous indicators of failure and deficiency continue to afflict the Israeli regime’s plans, particularly the absolute rejection by Gaza’s residents of leaving their land or abandoning it, and their insistence on confronting the Zionist regime’s conspiracies and thwarting them, regardless of the cost.