Australian Second-Quarter Growth Seen Slowing to 0.5% (Update2)
Australia's economic growth probably slowed from the fastest pace in three years as construction declined, storms and drought disrupted exports, and consumer spending cooled. Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three months ended June 30 from the first quarter, when it advanced 1.6 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists. The Bureau of Statistics will release the report tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney. Slowing expansion may add to expectations Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will refrain from raising interest rates again soon after last month's increase to an 11-year high. Policy makers may wait to gauge whether a slump in global financial markets, sparked by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, damps confidence and further cools growth. ``After a feverish start to the year, economic growth looks to have moderated,'' said Riki Polygenis, senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``Recent market turmoil has heightened risks to the outlook, so the central bank will keep rates unchanged as it assesses any fallout on Australia.'' Some economists cut their GDP predictions after a report today showed business inventories rose a less-than-expected 0.4 percent in the second quarter. The previous median was for 0.6 percent growth in the quarter. The A$1 trillion ($820 billion) economy, in its 16th year of expansion, grew 3.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the survey of economists. The annual rate in the first quarter was 3.8 percent. Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark overnight cash rate target a quarter point to 6.5 percent on Aug. 8, the first adjustment in 2007. Twenty of 25 economists surveyed expect the rate will be kept unchanged for the rest of the year. Policy makers expect Australia's economy will weather the market turmoil, sheltered by China's soaring demand for commodities that has fueled earnings for BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest miner, and other exporters. Income-tax cuts and rising wages will bolster consumer spending. For Australia, ``the picture is one of growth close to trend and the economy remaining close to full employment,'' Governor Stevens said on Aug. 17. ``The credit market developments add a degree of uncertainty about the outlook. We will, therefore, have to continue to watch carefully how this unfolds.'' Shares Slump Share markets throughout Asia and Europe began slumping in late July. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index plunged 12 percent from a July 24 record-high in the 3 1/2 weeks to Aug. 17 on concern mortgage losses in the U.S. would cut the supply of new lending and slow global growth. It has since rebounded 10.2 percent. ``I personally went out and bought some shares when it crashed,'' said Gerry Harvey, chairman at Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd., the nation's largest furniture and electronics retailer. ``I think this event will linger for a while, but it'll just pass us by. Australia has never been as wealthy as it is today.'' Curbing the nation's expansion in the second quarter, construction work completed fell 1.9 percent from the previous three months. Residential building work slipped 1.2 percent.
(Source: Bloomberg