TEHRAN – The Israeli regime assassinated the second-in-command of the al-Qassam Brigades on December 13. What is the regime's objective? 

The assassination of Raed Saad can be seen as an effort to eliminate the most experienced generation within the al-Qassam Brigades, an approach that, from the Zionist perspective, could later contribute to weakening the command-and-control structure.

Over the past two weeks, the skies over Gaza City, especially its western areas, have witnessed intensive flights by the Israeli regime’s reconnaissance aircraft. The operation involved a large number of drones flying simultaneously over a specific geographic area. Experts say that at times, as seen with the naked eye, there were as many as seven aircraft of different types. 

Some were dedicated to intelligence gathering, such as the Heron drone, which was flying unusually low and at very high speed. Others are typically used for targeted assassinations, such as the Hermes 900, considered among the most advanced and effective armed reconnaissance drones possessed by Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF).

At the time, security experts attributed these flights to an aerial encirclement of a target moving on the ground or located at coordinates obtained by one means or another, with a decision in place to assassinate the target at the first available opportunity.

On Saturday, the day of the assassination, it appears that the opportunity long sought by the occupation regime’s drones finally arose, making it possible to target the “man in the shadows” of the al-Qassam Brigades, commander Raed Saad, whom the Zionist regime had failed to assassinate more than five times before. 

The most recent attempt was during the genocidal aggression on Gaza, when a massive fire belt targeted a residential block in the Shati refugee camp northwest of Gaza City, killing a large number of Palestinian civilians, except for the wanted man himself, who, it seems, was not present at the location.

Setting aside the Israeli regime’s claim that the operation was a response to a roadside bomb attack that injured two reserve soldiers, an incident we only heard about after the assassination itself and which serves as a familiar pretext used by the IOF whenever it violates a ceasefire, the killing of commander Raed Saad constitutes an extremely dangerous escalation. 

Several objectives can be highlighted as to what the IOF sought to achieve through this aggression, which was not the first of its kind since the truce took effect and appears unlikely to be the last. The IOF’s appetite for killing remains open, as its leaders repeatedly declare.

The first objective is the elimination of a central, influential figure with extensive experience in armed resistance. Raed Saad was part of the founding generation of the al-Qassam Brigades, held several positions over a long career, occupied sensitive roles, and achieved significant accomplishments, particularly in military manufacturing, along with other areas the Brigades may reveal at a time of their choosing. 

He was also among the few commanders who survived the assassinations that targeted most members of the al-Qassam military council, foremost among them Commander-in-Chief Mohammed Deif, Chief of Staff Marwan Issa, and others such as Ayman Nofal, Ahmed al-Ghandour, Mohammed Sinwar, and many more.

Accordingly, Saad’s assassination can be seen as an attempt to eliminate the most experienced generation within al-Qassam, thereby weakening leadership and control, and creating doubt and uncertainty among resistance fighters who may be negatively affected by losing their leaders in this manner, at such a critical and sensitive time.

A second objective is to provoke a military response from Palestinian resistance forces in Gaza, allowing the occupation regime to renege on the truce agreement and resume the genocidal war that it is eager to restart. However, it needs a pretext to present to the world after facing widespread condemnation and evidence of war crimes, which have made its prime minister and former defense minister wanted by the International Criminal Court.

If the Palestinian resistance responds to this blatant aggression, a legitimate right guaranteed by international law even during a ceasefire, most experts and analysts believe a return to the genocidal war would become inevitable, though not necessarily in the same form as before. It could be limited to intensive aerial attacks across the Strip, without large-scale ground invasions.

What reinforces this scenario is the timing of the assassination, which came just before the expected start of the second phase of the agreement, as many anticipate and as stated by U.S. President Donald Trump. 

This phase includes major obligations for the IOF, such as withdrawing beyond the “yellow line” (about 32% of the Strip’s area), opening crossings, especially Rafah, and beginning rubble removal and reconstruction, which the devastated population of Gaza awaits anxiously.

A third objective is to establish new rules of engagement that the IOF believes it has successfully imposed on the resistance in Gaza, as it has in Lebanon. These rules allow it free rein to strike wherever and whenever it chooses, without accountability, while the resistance remains restrained to preserve the truce agreement and avoid providing pretexts for a return to genocidal aggression.

So far, more than sixty days into the Gaza truce and over a year into the Lebanon ceasefire agreement, the Zionist regime has succeeded in this objective. 

Its aggressive actions, classified worldwide (except by its American ally) as clear and blatant violations of the truce, have passed without meaningful response, beyond appeals to guarantor states to restrain the aggression, an approach that has proven ineffective in all previous agreements with the occupying Israeli regime. 

The resistance in Gaza and Lebanon may have other options unknown to its enemies, options that could surprise friends and foes alike if pursued. 

Yet the prevailing belief is that the resistance will continue to endure its pain, refusing to be drawn into a battlefield whose timing and location are chosen by the enemy, while working relentlessly to rebuild its human and military capabilities. 

When the moment comes that it believes it can thwart the enemy’s plans and protect its people’s interests, we may witness a new scenario, one that shatters the Zionist regime’s illusions once again and writes a new chapter in the history of West Asia’s resistance movements, a history whose lines will not be erased by the Israeli regime’s incendiary missiles, nor whose pages will be closed by its heinous aggression against steadfast Gaza and Lebanon.