TEHRAN - Kelsey Davenport, the director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association (ACA), says the NPT remains the cornerstone of the global nonproliferation system. However, she warns that “trust in the treaty is steadily eroding.”

Speaking at an Al Jazeera panel discussion along with Tariq Rauf and Seyed Hossein Mousavian on whether the NPT can prevent a disaster, Davenport argues, “If states conclude that the NPT no longer provides security benefits or a credible path toward disarmament, more countries may seek nuclear weapons as protection against coercion.”

Though Iran is a signatory to the NPT and its nuclear facilities were closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Israel and the United States struck its nuclear facilities during the 12-day war in June 2025 and again in the war, which began at the end of February and lasted for 40 days, even though a fragile ceasefire is now holding with the mediation of Pakistan.

Attacks on Iran’s safeguarded nuclear sites dealt a major blow to IAEA credibility

Tariq Rauf, the former head of Nuclear Verification and Security Policy Coordination at the IAEA, also said that the NPT system is facing one of its gravest crises since its creation in 1970.

Rauf warned that the collapse of arms control agreements between the United States and Russia, renewed nuclear competition among major powers, and growing geopolitical tensions have deepened the divide between nuclear and non-nuclear states.

He described the attacks on Iran’s “safeguarded nuclear facilities as a major blow to the credibility of the IAEA verification system.” He warned that such actions could encourage proliferation rather than prevent it.

Rauf, with years of experience in nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and arms control, also stressed that Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal remains a major source of instability in the Middle East.

He advocated renewed efforts to establish a Middle East nuclear-weapon-free zone and said Western powers have long shielded Israel’s nuclear program from international scrutiny.

Double-standards have done great harm to NPT

Speaking at the same forum, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the former Iranian nuclear spokesman and current researcher at Princeton University, said the credibility of the NPT has been severely undermined by double standards and the failure of nuclear-weapon states to fulfill their obligations.

Mousavian emphasized four principal shortcomings: first, the nuclear powers have failed to meet their disarmament commitments under the treaty; second, they continue modernizing and expanding their arsenals; third, major powers maintain strategic relations with nuclear-armed states outside the NPT, such as Israel, India, and Pakistan; and fourth, there is discriminatory treatment regarding peaceful nuclear technology.

He noted that countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands enrich uranium without objection, while Iran faces demands for “zero enrichment” despite remaining within the NPT.

He further stated that the U.S.–Israeli attacks on Iran’s safeguarded nuclear facilities represented a clear violation of international law, the UN Charter, and the principles of the IAEA.

He stressed that Iran’s nuclear program has remained under IAEA safeguards, but neither the IAEA nor the UN Security Council condemned the attacks, reinforcing the perception that the NPT is increasingly being used as a political instrument rather than an impartial legal framework.

Many Iranian decision-makers now see NPT membership as an ‘existential vulnerability’

Mousavian added that now many decision-makers in Iran see NPT membership itself as an “existential vulnerability”.

Since 2003, both IAEA reports and U.S. intelligence assessments have consistently found no evidence that Iran had decided to build nuclear weapons, he clarified.

Nevertheless, Mousavian said, Iran was subjected to severe sanctions, military attacks, and coercive pressure even while diplomacy was advancing and agreements appeared within reach in both 2025 and 2026.

He contrasted Iran’s experience with North Korea, arguing that Tehran increasingly believes countries possessing nuclear weapons are less likely to face military attack.

The Princeton University researcher also emphasized that Iran had accepted the JCPOA—the most comprehensive nonproliferation agreement in history—and implemented it fully under unprecedented inspection mechanisms.

He said Iran became the most inspected country in the history of the IAEA, with a substantial share of the Agency’s resources devoted to monitoring its nuclear activities.

The JCPOA is the official name for the nuclear deal that Iran signed with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany in July 2015 after two years of intensive talks. However, Trump revoked the deal signed during the presidency of Barack Obama, calling it the worst deal in history.  

On regional security, Mousavian supported the idea of a subregional nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Persian Gulf region within a broader framework for regional security and cooperation. He argued that such a framework should address maritime security, regional crises, and broader confidence-building measures.

At the same time, he maintained that Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal and the policy of preserving Israeli nuclear monopoly in the Middle East remain the central obstacles to establishing a regional WMD-free zone.