By Heshmatollah Rahnama

U.S. gradual plan to intervene in Venezuelan affairs

February 20, 2019

TEHRAN - The U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela following the Venezuelan presidential election of 2013 that led to Nicolas Madura presidency.

According to the Economic Debates Unit of the Latin American Geopolitical Strategic Center (CELAG)’s report, the main reason behind Venezuela’s economic crisis is the international financial blockade on Caracas. 

The financial and economic blockade that was mainly promoted by Washington and enforced by its allies, cost Venezuela around $350 billion in the production of goods and services between 2013 and 2017.

After this 5-year period, the spark of a parallel government in Venezuela came about in 2017 with the assistance of the Attorney General.

However, after the seizure of power by Juan Guidou on January 23, 2019, and the realization of a virtual government orchestrated by the United States and its allies, it was time to introduce diplomatic representatives and the selection of Citgo executives in the United States. Ironically, the majority of Citogo shares belongs to the National Petroleum Corporation of Venezuela. 

Clearly, this virtual government cannot continue on operating on social media and should seek a state of government on Venezuelan soil. Undoubtedly, the U.S. military has a special plan for Venezuela with the experience gained in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

The U.S. military has kept an eye on two Venezuelan states: the state of Falcon, due to the 20-mile maritime connection to the Aruba Island and the Amuay refinery in Anzoátegui, with a port, airport and petrochemical complex, which holds 40 percent of Orinoco's oil, and the state of Táchira, for sharing a border with Colombia.

The state of Táchira is the best option for U.S. military bases for its geopolitical conditions as it shares a border with Columbia. 

The city of Cúcuta has become the hub of humanitarian aid in Venezuela for its close proximity to Columbia, no wonder why on February 23, 2019, the U.S. humanitarian aid for Juan Guidou will be launched from the same border town.

If the crisis in Venezuela leads to war, the Venezuelan military-defense structure will make a quick battle impossible. For this reason, the contingency war will be multivariate and imbalanced and will be a major threat to the region. A long-term military intervention will lead to Venezuela's collective immigration to the regional countries that cannot host immigrants. The consolidation of Washington's influence and leadership in Latin America will depend not only on removing the incumbent Venezuelan government but also on the pace of the changes.

The question now is whether the United States intends to create a regional crisis in Latin America.

To answer the question, Venezuela is one of the countries that holds the world's largest oil reserves and is one of the closest oil exporters to the United States. 

Maybe that's why Florida State Senator Marco Rubio and the White House National Security Adviser John Bolton shouts that the self-declared President Guido will give more money to U.S. oil companies than Maduro. On the other hand, as former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said, the change in the Venezuelan government for the U.S. would mean regaining Caracas’s resources through a puppet government.
 
When Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, he had a tremendous impact on undermining United States influence in the region, and the regional countries formed strategic alliances to counteract the influence of Washington in Latin America.

t the same time, many Latin American countries have strengthened their diplomatic relations with countries such as Iran, Russia and China, and promoted large investments with China and Russia. Thus, the overthrow of the Venezuelan government, which has played a significant role in diminishing Washington’s influence in the Latin American region over the past two decades, will be considered an important victory for the United States.

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