By Hanif Ghaffari

Decoding the confrontation between Schumer and Trump

January 26, 2018 - 11:52

TEHRAN - The shutdown of the federal government has become a hot topic in the United States. Both the Democratic and Republican's media are trying to blame the rival party for the shutdown of the federal government.

Amid these quarrels the names of Donald Trump and "Chuck Schumer" are heard more than any other names. "Chuck Schumer", the U.S. Senate Democrats leader, has been accused by the Republicans for the shutdown of the federal government due to the lack of flexibility in negotiating with Trump. Chuck Schumer, on the other hand, believes Donald Trump's insistence on his uncompromising and irrational stances has led to disagreement between the White House and the Democrats of the Senate, and as a result to the shutdown of the federal government. There is, however, a point that has been deliberately ignored by Trump. 

In other words, the President of the United States and many Republicans are not essentially going to speak of the Republican Senators who were the pros of the government's shut down. This is while in the current U.S. Senate, Democrats alone could not have closed the federal government. On the other hand, not voting to the federal minimum and temporary budget have also had the support of both the dissatisfied Republicans and the Democrats. What is certain is that, along with the Democratic senators, some Republican senators have also voted to the federal government's shutdown and have not approved the interim budget. Under these circumstances, the Democrats can't be taken as the only reason for the US government's shutdown.

In his recent statements, Chuck Schumer emphasized that Democrats can't be considered as the reason of the federal government's shutdown, and some Republicans have opposed the temporary allocation of funds to Trump's administration. However, the Republicans, and mainly Donald Trump, intend to indicate Democrats as the one agents in the government's shut down. 

The fact is that over the past year, there some Republicans had secret and obvious opposition to Trump and his administration.  Senators like John McCain, Rand Paul, Jeff Flake, and ... despite being a member of the Republican Party, have been generally against Trump's approach in US economic, internal and foreign policy. However, It is not clear if these people voted for the federal government shutdown or not. 

But it can be clearly stated that the opposition of Republican senators to Trump has entered a new phase. These objections are going to be a trouble for Trump in the Congress mid-term elections in 2018. Moreover, the continuation of these disputes could lead to his failure in the presidential elections of 2020. If the Republican senators lobby in order to avoid voting for Trump in their state constituencies, then the U.S. president will have a hard time ahead for winning the next election and remaining at the White House. More importantly, the latest polls in the United States show that 31 percent of Republicans no longer agree to the presence of Trump as the U.S. president. This is while only one year has passed since the presence of Trump at the top of the political and executive equations of the United States.

On the other hand, recent polls in the United States suggest that, in addition to a number of Republican-affiliated politicians, a relatively large number of supporters of the party are opposed to Trump's performance. But Trump needs the backing of the vast majority of Republicans to win the presidency of the United States in 2020. Another important point is that, according to polls, some Republicans are opposing Trump so much that, they're ready to vote for "Joe Biden", "Bernie Sanders", or even "Hillary Clinton" as his potential rival candidates in the next election.

According to the polls results, Trump is now facing a strong opposition within the Republican Party. These results have seriously worried the president of the United States. An overview of a recent polls shows that Trump and his administration's concerns over his unpopularity with the Republican voters is not without a reason. The results of a recent NBC and the Wall Street Journal poll, which had been published before the federal government's shutdown, showed that 57 percent of the participants did not approve of the president's performance. And 51% said they were "strongly opposed to" his performance. In the poll, 78 percent of the Republicans said they approved Trump's performance. However, not all of the 78 percent seem to be prepared to accept Trump as the President of the United States, while confirming his overall performance. Furthermore, we can see that about a quarter of the Republican voters are dissatisfied with Trump. This alone can turn into the U.S. controversial President's Achilles heel in the presidential election of 2020.

Another point to be noted here is that Trump was really defeated during the 2016 presidential election, and Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's Candidate won the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots. But Trump was able to reach the top by referring to the electoral structure. Hence, Trump is well aware of his serious vulnerability in the next presidential election. Democrats now have a strong rivalry inside over the candidacy in the next presidential elections. Given the ongoing trend, the likelihood of Trump's defeat in the next election is very high. Of course, that's if he can successfully finish his first term in office by 2020!

However, polls in the United States show that Trump is severely vulnerable in the next presidential elections. Undoubtedly, factors such as the shutdown of the federal government (which has just occurred) will lead to a further decline in the popularity of the U.S president. On the other hand, the Republicans' likely defeat in the Congress mid-term elections will also increase the activity of the Democrat members of the Senate and the House of Representatives between 2018 and 2020 against US government. Under such circumstances, the power of the President will be limited to Washington. What is certain is that according to the conducted polls, Trump is going to face a difficult situation in the next three years, a situation which he doesn't look to be able to manage.

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