Mideast governments watching U.S. vote

November 1, 2006 - 0:0
CAIRO, Egypt (AP)-- Arab governments are looking for change in U.S. policy in the Middle East after the midterm elections, hoping a politically weakened President Bush will talk with Iran and Syria, show greater interest in the Palestinians and find a way out of the crisis in Iraq.

Israel too is watching for any sign of change in U.S. strategy — especially toward the Palestinians, Syria and Iran. "The whole region is volatile and it cannot face more problems and challenges," Arab League official Hesham Youssef said in a recent interview. "They cannot leave it like this, neither in Iraq nor in Gaza nor in Lebanon. More conflicts could be ahead."

The Bush administration came into office in 2001 committed to reshaping the political map of the Middle East, which was suffering from authoritarian regimes, Islamic extremism, the conflict with Israel and sluggish economies.

Bush has spoken repeatedly of his dream of creating a new Middle East. But five years later, most analysts believe few things have improved. And, U.S. influence in the region is at a low point, in part because despite Saddam Hussein's overthrow, Iraq has never stabilized.

A June poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that less than one-third of the people in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Turkey had a favorable view of the United States. "Virtually everything is worse than it was five years ago," said Jon Alterman, a Middle East analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"Iraq is worse, the Palestinian issue is worse, Iran is worse."

Many Arabs blame on the Bush administration, citing the war in Iraq especially, but also unqualified support for Israel in the battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon and inattention to the Palestinians.

Democracy efforts have stalled. Non-democratic but pro-U.S. governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan now largely shrug off the administration's campaign for strong steps toward democracy.

The victory by the Islamic militant Hamas group in Palestinian elections last January gave a boost to arguments that stability was more important than democracy. And the biggest democratic experiment of all — Iraq — has degenerated into a vicious sectarian war.

"If the U.S. is going to help itself, its policy needs to change in the Middle East," the Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Turki al-Faisal, said Monday in Washington. He urged the U.S. to start by pressing Israel to relinquish all occupied Arab land — and Jerusalem — to the Palestinians.

Many Arab officials question, however, whether the Democrats have better answers to the region's problems. They consider the Democrats traditionally more supportive of Israel than the GOP is. Even as they eye the possible political upheaval in the United States, Arab countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia are maintaining close ties to the Bush administration. "At the level of those who follow politics closely, there is fear that if the Democrats win, there will be an imbalance in foreign policy," said Kuwaiti analyst Ayed al-Mannah.

"Support for moderate forces and governments ... will be weakened."

Still, the belief is that heavy Republican losses in the House and Senate will force the administration into a major re-evaluation of policy, especially over Iraq. To that end, Arab governments are looking to the forthcoming recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a catalyst.