By Michael Kimmage and Sudha David-Wilp

The Zeitenwende is real this time

Germany’s defense upgrade is necessary but could upset Europe’s balance of power

For many years, Germany has needed to dramatically expand its defenses, and today, it finally seems ready to do so. When Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014, Germany’s response was muted. Berlin held inconclusive talks with the Kremlin, imposed a handful of sanctions, and then quietly returned to business as usual with Moscow. After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, or “turning point.” He promised to increase defense spending, send more aid to Ukraine, and rapidly reduce Germany’s energy dependence on Russia. In the end, the Zeitenwende was a turning point in name only. Hamstrung by coalition infighting, Scholz failed to overhaul Germany’s defenses.