Meteorological Organization predicts normal levels of precipitation

October 10, 2018

TEHRAN — In its latest report, Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IMO) has forecast that precipitations will meet normal levels in the second half of the current Iranian calendar year, corresponding to autumn and winter.

Based on the weather maps as well as weather phenomena total amounts of the precipitations will reach normal level in the country over autumn and winter, with highest rainfalls expected to occur in northern half of the country and Zagros region, the report adds.  

The report continues that precipitation amounts will exceed normal levels in the first month of autumn, particularly in western and northwestern areas. Over the second month of autumn precipitation will remain at normal levels except for some areas in southwestern Iran where precipitation will be below the normal level. 

Precipitations will also remain at normal levels in last month of autumn. Over the first month of winter precipitation levels will plummet in western areas and in the one but last month of winter, precipitations will reach normal levels again, the report stated. 

However, despite the projected rise in precipitation amount, the country is still facing water shortage and sustainable use of groundwater resources is a must, the report highlighted.

Temperature is forecasted to rise between 0.5 to 1 degree on the Celsius scale in the country during autumn, exclusive of eastern areas where temperature will soar between 1 and 2 degrees on the Celsius scale. 

The IMO report also explained that precipitation levels in the last crop year (September 23, 2017 to September 23, 2018) reached 165.8 millimeters which indicate a 28.7 percent drop compared to the 232.4 millimeters of long-term averages. The amount also has experienced a 21.9 percent drop in comparison with last year’s crop year precipitations. 

Over the last crop year 22 province of Iran have experienced lower-than-normal precipitation amounts, seven met normal levels, and only two provinces of East Azarbaijan and West Azarbaijan arrived at above average precipitations. 

Provinces of Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, Hormozgan, Fars and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad with 75, 67, 67, 56 and 53 percent decrease in precipitation set the record for the lowest precipitation levels respectively.

The report also asserted that over the first half of the current year (beginning on March 21) the country’s total precipitation totaled 70.8 millimeters, an increase of 23.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. However, the amount experienced a 6.2 percent decrease in contrast with long-term averages.

17 provinces nationwide enjoyed an increase in precipitation amounts over the same period, 10 provinces reported below average precipitation and 4 received normal amounts. 

Provinces of Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchestan, Gilan, Kerman and Golestan experienced the highest precipitation drop in the first half of the current year compared to the long-term averages. 

Except for the second month of spring with temperature drop of 0.6 degree on the Celsius scale all other months faced temperature rise.
  
The report concludes that based on the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over the first half of the current year approximately 80.6 percent of the country’s land area faced draught to different extents as some 25.3 percent of the country is withstanding severe drought. 

MQ/MG

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