TEHRAN — The clearest path to a deal to end the US war on Iran may lie in the dispute over shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz, according to former US negotiator Dennis Ross, as Washington confronts the reality that months of military and economic pressure have failed to force Tehran into submission.

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, apparently expecting that sustained military pressure would weaken the Islamic Republic and compel its leadership to make far-reaching concessions. Instead, Iran has maintained its political and military footing while continuing to challenge US pressure, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. 

Iran has repeatedly demonstrated that it can absorb severe pressure while retaining significant leverage over the course of the confrontation. Despite the heavy economic costs imposed by US sanctions and the naval blockade, Tehran has rejected demands that it sees as compromising its sovereignty and has continued to insist that any settlement must address the consequences of Washington’s military campaign.

Ross said Iran could abandon any demand for a formal toll on shipping while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigational, security or environmental services. Such an arrangement, he argued, could give both sides a way to claim a political victory, allowing Tehran to step back from its demand without appearing to capitulate.

“The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resilience,” Ross said, adding that he doubted economic and military pressure alone would force an Iranian retreat. 

The Strait of Hormuz has become the central pressure point in the confrontation. Washington has sought to use its naval power and economic blockade to restrict Iran’s oil exports, while Tehran has maintained that the strait cannot simply be treated as an instrument of US power. Recent military exchanges around the waterway have further demonstrated the risks of trying to resolve the dispute through force.

“If you could announce that the strait were reopened, I think Trump would do a deal,” Ross told The Associated Press.

For Washington, such a deal could provide a face-saving way to end a costly confrontation. For Tehran, reopening the waterway while preserving its sovereign rights and securing an end to the pressure campaign could equally be presented as a victory.

After months of war, the emerging lesson is that Iran’s resilience has become one of the central factors pushing the US to search for an exit from the conflict.